Tuesday's Osaka round of 32 pits Katerina Siniakova against Peyton Stearns on hard. Katerina Siniakova has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Peyton Stearns has won 5 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Siniakova gets the nod on the finest of margins.