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Wimbledon predictions, July 5, 2026: Djokovic vs. Safiullin, Sinner vs. Mochizuki

By The Maiden Desk · July 5, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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7 matches are on Sunday's card at Wimbledon, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Novak Djokovic against Roman Safiullin in the round of 16. Our calls: Djokovic over Safiullin, Sinner over Mochizuki, Pegula over Jovic, Bencic over Gauff, Osaka over Sabalenka, Muchova over Krejcikova, and 1 more.

July 4, 2026 results: 8-7 how our picks graded, match by match.

Jannik Sinner vs. Shintaro Mochizuki

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Jannik Sinner at 76% before the match, and Jannik Sinner won 6-3 7-6 6-3.

Pick: Sinner

Win probability: 76% Sinner · Most likely score: 3-0 (59%)

Jannik Sinner and Shintaro Mochizuki meet in the round of 16 at Wimbledon on Sunday. Jannik Sinner is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Shintaro Mochizuki brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 5-5 across the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

The serve is where this match separates: Sinner has been winning 72.3% of first-serve points to Mochizuki's 68.5%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. If Sinner plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

Barbora Krejcikova vs. Karolina Muchova

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Karolina Muchova at 65% before the match, and Karolina Muchova won 7-5 5-7 6-3.

Pick: Muchova

Win probability: 65% Muchova · Most likely score: 2-0 (41%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Barbora Krejcikova goes up against Karolina Muchova in the Wimbledon round of 16. Karolina Muchova has won 8 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Barbora Krejcikova has won 5 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Muchova should have enough here, though Krejcikova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Hubert Hurkacz vs. Jan Lennard Struff

Not gradedThis match ended in a walkover, advancing Jan Lennard Struff. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.

Pick: Hurkacz

Win probability: 63% Hurkacz · Most likely score: 3-0 (25%) · Could go long: 26% chance of a full five sets

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Hubert Hurkacz goes up against Jan Lennard Struff in the Wimbledon round of 16. Hubert Hurkacz brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Jan Lennard Struff is rolling — 5 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.

The rivalry is dead level: 2-2 across 4 matches. On grass specifically it reads 1-0 Struff — worth more than the overall number this week.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Hurkacz — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Naomi Osaka at 63% before the match, and Naomi Osaka won 6-2 7-6.

Pick: Osaka

Win probability: 63% Osaka · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)

Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka meet in the round of 16 at Wimbledon on Sunday. Naomi Osaka is rolling — 9 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Aryna Sabalenka has won 5 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.

Aryna Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 4-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.

The serve is where this match separates: Osaka has been winning 71.1% of first-serve points to Sabalenka's 67.2%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Osaka.

Novak Djokovic vs. Roman Safiullin

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Novak Djokovic was our 60% pick, and won 7-6 6-3 3-6 6-3.

Pick: Djokovic

Win probability: 60% Djokovic · Most likely score: 3-1 (23%)

Sunday's Wimbledon round of 16 pits Novak Djokovic against Roman Safiullin on grass. Novak Djokovic is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Roman Safiullin is rolling — 5 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.

Novak Djokovic leads the head-to-head 3-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.

Novak Djokovic is clearly higher-rated on grass — our number puts Djokovic around 60%. Little separates them; Djokovic gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Iva Jovic vs. Jessica Pegula

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Jessica Pegula at 59% before the match, and Jessica Pegula won 4-6 6-3 6-1.

Pick: Pegula

Win probability: 59% Pegula · Most likely score: 2-0 (34%)

Iva Jovic and Jessica Pegula meet in the round of 16 at Wimbledon on Sunday. Jessica Pegula is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Iva Jovic brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.

The ledger favors Jessica Pegula, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Iva Jovic.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Pegula fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Belinda Bencic vs. Coco Gauff

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Belinda Bencic at 53%, but Coco Gauff won 4-6 6-3 6-4.

Pick: Bencic

Win probability: 53% Bencic · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)

Sunday's Wimbledon round of 16 pits Belinda Bencic against Coco Gauff on grass. Belinda Bencic brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Coco Gauff is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.

The ledger favors Coco Gauff, 5-2 across their 7 meetings with Belinda Bencic.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bencic is exactly that — a lean.

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Updated Jul 4, 2026, 12:12 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.