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Wimbledon predictions, July 6, 2026: Noskova vs. Keys, Bublik vs. Fritz

By The Maiden Desk · July 6, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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6 matches are on Monday's card at Wimbledon, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Linda Noskova against Madison Keys in the round of 16. Our calls: Keys over Noskova, Fritz over Bublik, Minaur over Cobolli, Eala over Paolini, Kostyuk over Krueger, Bouzkova over Mertens.

July 5, 2026 results: 5-1 how our picks graded, match by match.

Alexandra Eala vs. Jasmine Paolini

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Alexandra Eala at 54% lost to Jasmine Paolini (6-4 4-6 6-3).

Pick: Eala

Win probability: 54% Eala · Most likely score: 2-0 (35%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Alexandra Eala goes up against Jasmine Paolini in the Wimbledon round of 16. Alexandra Eala brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Jasmine Paolini brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.

Alexandra Eala has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Jasmine Paolini.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Eala comes in off a compressed schedule; Paolini comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Eala fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Elise Mertens vs. Marie Bouzkova

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Marie Bouzkova at 57%, but Elise Mertens won 6-4 6-4.

Pick: Bouzkova

Win probability: 57% Bouzkova · Most likely score: 2-0 (37%)

Elise Mertens and Marie Bouzkova meet in the round of 16 at Wimbledon on Monday. Marie Bouzkova brings a 9-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Elise Mertens is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.

The ledger favors Elise Mertens, 2-1 across their 3 meetings with Marie Bouzkova.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Mertens comes in off a compressed schedule; Bouzkova comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Bouzkova gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Taylor Fritz was our 54% pick, and won 7-6 6-4 6-4.

Pick: Fritz

Win probability: 54% Fritz · Most likely score: 3-0 (22%) · Could go long: 25% chance of a full five sets

Alexander Bublik and Taylor Fritz meet in the round of 16 at Wimbledon on Monday. Taylor Fritz is rolling — 4 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Alexander Bublik is rolling — 4 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.

Nothing separates them historically — the head-to-head sits at 4-4. On grass specifically it reads 2-0 Fritz — worth more than the overall number this week.

Taylor Fritz simply rates much higher on grass, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fritz fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Ashlyn Krueger vs. Marta Kostyuk

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 51% on Marta Kostyuk, who won 6-4 6-4.

Pick: Kostyuk

Win probability: 51% Kostyuk · Most likely score: 2-0 (35%)

Ashlyn Krueger and Marta Kostyuk meet in the round of 16 at Wimbledon on Monday. Marta Kostyuk has won 4 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Ashlyn Krueger brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 5-5 across the last ten.

Ashlyn Krueger has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Marta Kostyuk.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Krueger comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kostyuk is exactly that — a lean.

Alex De Minaur vs. Flavio Cobolli

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Alex De Minaur at 54%, but Flavio Cobolli won 7-5 7-6 6-3.

Pick: Minaur

Win probability: 54% Minaur · Most likely score: 3-1 (20%) · Could go long: 29% chance of a full five sets

Alex De Minaur and Flavio Cobolli meet in the round of 16 at Wimbledon on Monday. Alex De Minaur is rolling — 4 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Flavio Cobolli brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.

Alex De Minaur leads the head-to-head 2-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. Minaur comes in off a compressed schedule; Cobolli comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Minaur is exactly that — a lean.

Linda Noskova vs. Madison Keys

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Madison Keys at 55% lost to Linda Noskova (6-4 7-6).

Pick: Keys

Win probability: 55% Keys · Most likely score: 2-0 (35%)

Linda Noskova and Madison Keys meet in the round of 16 at Wimbledon on Monday. Madison Keys is rolling — 8 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Linda Noskova is rolling — 4 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Keys is exactly that — a lean.

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Updated Jul 15, 2026, 6:06 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.