3 matches are on Wednesday's card at Bastad, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Emiliana Arango against Paula Badosa in the round of 16. Our calls: Arango over Badosa, Lepchenko over Korpatsch, Radivojevic over Putintseva.
The boldest call on the card: Arango over Badosa — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: ArangoUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Badosa the favorite; our numbers say Arango.
Win probability: 58% Arango · Most likely score: 2-0 (34%) · Could go long: 43% chance of a full three sets
Emiliana Arango and Paula Badosa meet in the round of 16 at Bastad on Wednesday. Emiliana Arango is 4-6 across recent matches. Paula Badosa has won 3 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Arango gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: LepchenkoUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Korpatsch the favorite; our numbers say Lepchenko.
Win probability: 53% Lepchenko · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%) · Could go long: 45% chance of a full three sets
Wednesday's Bastad round of 16 pits Tamara Korpatsch against Varvara Lepchenko on clay. Varvara Lepchenko has won 6 of the last 10. Tamara Korpatsch has won 5 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Korpatsch comes in off a compressed schedule; Lepchenko arrives with very little recovery time. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Lepchenko is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: RadivojevicUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Putintseva the favorite; our numbers say Radivojevic.
Win probability: 51% Radivojevic · Most likely score: 2-0 (25%) · Could go long: 51% chance of a full three sets
Lola Radivojevic and Yulia Putintseva meet in the round of 16 at Bastad on Wednesday. Lola Radivojevic has won 4 of the last 10. Yulia Putintseva has won 5 of the last 10.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Radivojevic's 66% behind the first serve (against 59.9% for Putintseva) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Radivojevic comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Radivojevic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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