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Trieste Predictions & Picks — July 8, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 8, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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2 matches are on Wednesday's card at Trieste, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Andrea Pellegrino against Raul Brancaccio in the round of 16. Our calls: Pellegrino over Brancaccio, Passaro over Squire.

The boldest call on the card: Passaro over Squire — the market disagrees with us there.

Francesco Passaro vs. Henri Squire

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 56% on Francesco Passaro; Henri Squire won 5-7 6-4 7-5.

Pick: PassaroUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Squire the favorite; our numbers say Passaro.

Win probability: 56% Passaro · Most likely score: 2-0 (29%) · Could go long: 49% chance of a full three sets

Francesco Passaro and Henri Squire meet in the round of 16 at Trieste on Wednesday. Francesco Passaro comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Henri Squire has won 6 of the last 10.

Henri Squire has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Francesco Passaro. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Squire — worth more than the overall number this week.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Passaro comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Passaro fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Andrea Pellegrino vs. Raul Brancaccio

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Andrea Pellegrino at 54% lost to Raul Brancaccio (3-6 6-4 6-3).

Pick: Pellegrino

Win probability: 54% Pellegrino · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Andrea Pellegrino goes up against Raul Brancaccio in the Trieste round of 16. Andrea Pellegrino comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Raul Brancaccio comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Pellegrino gets the nod on the finest of margins.

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Updated Jul 8, 2026, 3:31 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.