Trieste Predictions & Picks — July 8, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 8, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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2 matches are on Wednesday's card at Trieste, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Francesco Passaro against Henri Squire in the round of 16. Our calls: Passaro over Squire, Pellegrino over Brancaccio. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

The boldest call on the card: Passaro over Squire — the ratings disagree with us there.

Francesco Passaro vs. Henri Squire

Francesco Passaro and Henri Squire meet in the round of 16 at Trieste on Wednesday. Francesco Passaro comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Henri Squire has won 6 of the last 10.

Henri Squire has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Francesco Passaro. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Squire — worth more than the overall number this week.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Passaro comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Passaro fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: PassaroUpset call

Upset call — the ratings lean Squire; our numbers say Passaro.

Win probability: 56% Passaro · Most likely score: 2-0 (29%) · Could go long: 49% chance of a full three sets

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 56% on Francesco Passaro; Henri Squire won 5-7 6-4 7-5.

Andrea Pellegrino vs. Raul Brancaccio

A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Andrea Pellegrino goes up against Raul Brancaccio in the Trieste round of 16. Andrea Pellegrino comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Raul Brancaccio comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Pellegrino gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: Pellegrino

Win probability: 54% Pellegrino · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Andrea Pellegrino at 54% lost to Raul Brancaccio (3-6 6-4 6-3). It counts against our record like every other miss.