5 matches are on Tuesday's card at Bastad, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Sebastian Ofner against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the round of 32. Our calls: Tirante over Ofner, Pellegrino over Kjaer, Choinski over Basilashvili, Altmaier over Gaston, Dimitrov over Svrcina. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
Tuesday's Bastad round of 32 pits Dalibor Svrcina against Grigor Dimitrov on clay. Grigor Dimitrov is 6-4 across recent matches. Dalibor Svrcina is 5-5 across recent matches.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Hold strength tells the story — 73.6% versus 62% on first-serve points in Dimitrov's favor. The edge belongs to Dimitrov — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Dimitrov
Win probability: 60% Dimitrov · Most likely score: 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Jan Choinski goes up against Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Bastad round of 32. Jan Choinski is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Nikoloz Basilashvili is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (6 of the last 10).
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Jan Choinski is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Choinski around 57%. Little separates them; Choinski gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Choinski
Win probability: 57% Choinski · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Sebastian Ofner goes up against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Bastad round of 32. Thiago Agustin Tirante limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Sebastian Ofner comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Thiago Agustin Tirante simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tirante is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Tirante
Win probability: 57% Tirante · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)
Tuesday's Bastad round of 32 pits Daniel Altmaier against Hugo Gaston on clay. Daniel Altmaier is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Hugo Gaston is rolling — 4 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Nothing separates them historically — the head-to-head sits at 1-1. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Gaston — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Altmaier has been winning 71.1% of first-serve points to Gaston's 65.7%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Altmaier gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Altmaier
Win probability: 55% Altmaier · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)
Tuesday's Bastad round of 32 pits Andrea Pellegrino against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer on clay. Andrea Pellegrino comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has dropped 5 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Pellegrino is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Pellegrino
Win probability: 54% Pellegrino · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%) · Could go long: 50% chance of a full three sets