4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Bastad, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniel Altmaier against Luciano Darderi in the round of 16. Our calls: Darderi over Altmaier, Vallejo over Zandschulp, Dimitrov over Borges, Navone over Travaglia.
Pick: Darderi
Win probability: 57% Darderi · Most likely score: 2-0 (35%)
Wednesday's Bastad round of 16 pits Daniel Altmaier against Luciano Darderi on clay. Luciano Darderi is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Daniel Altmaier has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Daniel Altmaier has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Luciano Darderi.
Luciano Darderi is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Darderi around 57%. Little separates them; Darderi gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Navone
Win probability: 54% Navone · Most likely score: 2-0 (34%)
Wednesday's Bastad round of 16 pits Mariano Navone against Stefano Travaglia on clay. Mariano Navone has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Stefano Travaglia is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Navone gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Dimitrov
Win probability: 51% Dimitrov · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%)
Grigor Dimitrov and Nuno Borges meet in the round of 16 at Bastad on Wednesday. Grigor Dimitrov has won 6 of the last 10. Nuno Borges has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Dimitrov gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Vallejo
Win probability: 50% Vallejo · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Botic Van De Zandschulp goes up against Daniel Vallejo in the Bastad round of 16. Daniel Vallejo has won 5 of the last 10. Botic Van De Zandschulp limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Vallejo is exactly that — a lean.
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