4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Bastad, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniel Altmaier against Luciano Darderi in the round of 16. Our calls: Darderi over Altmaier, Vallejo over Zandschulp, Dimitrov over Borges, Navone over Travaglia.
Pick: Darderi
Win probability: 57% Darderi · Most likely score: 2-0 (35%)
Wednesday's Bastad round of 16 pits Daniel Altmaier against Luciano Darderi on clay. Luciano Darderi is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Daniel Altmaier has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Daniel Altmaier has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Luciano Darderi.
Luciano Darderi is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Darderi around 57%. Little separates them; Darderi gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Navone
Win probability: 54% Navone · Most likely score: 2-0 (34%)
Wednesday's Bastad round of 16 pits Mariano Navone against Stefano Travaglia on clay. Mariano Navone has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Stefano Travaglia is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Navone gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Dimitrov
Win probability: 51% Dimitrov · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%)
Grigor Dimitrov and Nuno Borges meet in the round of 16 at Bastad on Wednesday. Grigor Dimitrov has won 6 of the last 10. Nuno Borges has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Dimitrov gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Vallejo
Win probability: 50% Vallejo · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Botic Van De Zandschulp goes up against Daniel Vallejo in the Bastad round of 16. Daniel Vallejo has won 5 of the last 10. Botic Van De Zandschulp limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Vallejo is exactly that — a lean.
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