Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Alex Molcan. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Pick: Prizmic
Win probability: 53% Prizmic · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%)
Wednesday's Umag round of 16 pits Alex Molcan against Dino Prizmic on clay. Dino Prizmic comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Alex Molcan has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Prizmic's 69.7% behind the first serve (against 66.2% for Molcan) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Prizmic fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Luciano Darderi at 57% before the match, and Luciano Darderi won 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Darderi
Win probability: 57% Darderi · Most likely score: 2-0 (35%)
Wednesday's Bastad round of 16 pits Daniel Altmaier against Luciano Darderi on clay. Luciano Darderi is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Daniel Altmaier has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Daniel Altmaier has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Luciano Darderi.
Luciano Darderi is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Darderi around 57%. Little separates them; Darderi gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 53% on Titouan Droguet, who won 6-1 1-6 7-5.
Pick: Droguet
Win probability: 53% Droguet · Most likely score: 2-0 (27%) · Could go long: 50% chance of a full three sets
Luca Van Assche and Titouan Droguet meet in the round of 16 at Umag on Wednesday. Titouan Droguet comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Luca Van Assche has won 6 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
Luca Van Assche has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Titouan Droguet.
Hold strength tells the story — 73.6% versus 67.8% on first-serve points in Droguet's favor. Little separates them; Droguet gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 54% on Pablo Carreno Busta; Camilo Ugo Carabelli won 3-6 7-5 7-5.
Pick: Busta
Win probability: 54% Busta · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Pablo Carreno Busta meet in the round of 16 at Umag on Wednesday. Pablo Carreno Busta is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (6 of the last 10). Camilo Ugo Carabelli comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Carabelli — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Busta gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 64% on Flavio Cobolli; Roman Andres Burruchaga won 6-2 6-4.
Pick: Cobolli
Win probability: 64% Cobolli · Most likely score: 2-0 (42%)
Wednesday's Umag round of 16 pits Flavio Cobolli against Roman Andres Burruchaga on clay. Flavio Cobolli has won 7 of the last 10. Roman Andres Burruchaga is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (2 of the last 10).
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Hold strength tells the story — 71.6% versus 65.5% on first-serve points in Cobolli's favor. Cobolli should have enough here, though Burruchaga has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Yannick Hanfmann at 50% lost to Valentin Vacherot (4-6 6-3 6-4).
Pick: Hanfmann
Win probability: 50% Hanfmann · Most likely score: 2-1 (25%) · Could go long: 51% chance of a full three sets
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Valentin Vacherot goes up against Yannick Hanfmann in the Gstaad round of 16. Yannick Hanfmann has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Valentin Vacherot has won 6 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Yannick Hanfmann is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Hanfmann around 50%. Hanfmann comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Hanfmann is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Daniel Vallejo was our 50% pick, and won 4-6 6-3 7-6.
Pick: Vallejo
Win probability: 50% Vallejo · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Botic Van De Zandschulp goes up against Daniel Vallejo in the Bastad round of 16. Daniel Vallejo has won 5 of the last 10. Botic Van De Zandschulp limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Vallejo is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Lilli Tagger at 51%, but Sara Bejlek won 6-2 6-2.
Pick: TaggerUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Bejlek the favorite; our numbers say Tagger.
Win probability: 51% Tagger · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Lilli Tagger goes up against Sara Bejlek in the Athens (Greece) round of 16. Lilli Tagger has dropped 4 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Sara Bejlek has won 3 of the last 10.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Hold strength tells the story — 66.2% versus 58.5% on first-serve points in Tagger's favor. Little separates them; Tagger gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Tomas Martin Etcheverry at 57% lost to Daniel Merida Aguilar (7-5 6-4).
Pick: Etcheverry
Win probability: 57% Etcheverry · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)
Daniel Merida Aguilar and Tomas Martin Etcheverry meet in the round of 16 at Umag on Wednesday. Tomas Martin Etcheverry is searching for form, having lost 6 in a row (2 of the last 10). Daniel Merida Aguilar is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10).
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Etcheverry's 72% behind the first serve (against 65.1% for Aguilar) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Etcheverry fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Grigor Dimitrov at 51%, but Nuno Borges won 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Dimitrov
Win probability: 51% Dimitrov · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%)
Grigor Dimitrov and Nuno Borges meet in the round of 16 at Bastad on Wednesday. Grigor Dimitrov has won 6 of the last 10. Nuno Borges has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Dimitrov gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina was our 53% pick, and won 6-4 7-5.
Pick: Fokina
Win probability: 53% Fokina · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Marco Trungelliti meet in the round of 16 at Umag on Wednesday. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won 9 of the last 10. Marco Trungelliti is 5-5 across recent matches.
Marco Trungelliti has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Fokina gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 60% on Anna Bondar; Tamara Zidansek won 7-6 6-7 7-5.
Pick: Bondar
Win probability: 60% Bondar · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)
Anna Bondar and Tamara Zidansek meet in the round of 16 at Iasi on Wednesday. Anna Bondar is 4-6 across recent matches. Tamara Zidansek is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (6 of the last 10).
Anna Bondar has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Tamara Zidansek. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Bondar — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Bondar has been winning 64.8% of first-serve points to Zidansek's 57.7%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Zidansek comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Bondar gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 52% on Yulia Putintseva, who won 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Putintseva
Win probability: 52% Putintseva · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)
Alina Charaeva and Yulia Putintseva meet in the round of 16 at Iasi on Wednesday. Yulia Putintseva has won 6 of the last 10. Alina Charaeva comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Putintseva is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 54% on Mariano Navone; Stefano Travaglia won 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Navone
Win probability: 54% Navone · Most likely score: 2-0 (34%)
Wednesday's Bastad round of 16 pits Mariano Navone against Stefano Travaglia on clay. Mariano Navone has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Stefano Travaglia is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Navone gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo at 51% lost to Damir Dzumhur (7-6 6-1).
Pick: AngeloUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Dzumhur the favorite; our numbers say Angelo.
Win probability: 51% Angelo · Most likely score: 2-0 (27%)
Damir Dzumhur and Juan Carlos Prado Angelo meet in the round of 16 at Umag on Wednesday. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo is searching for form, having lost 6 in a row (3 of the last 10). Damir Dzumhur is 3-7 across recent matches.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Angelo fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 62% on Raphael Collignon, who won 7-6 7-6.
Pick: Collignon
Win probability: 62% Collignon · Most likely score: 2-0 (39%)
Wednesday's Gstaad round of 16 pits Lorenzo Sonego against Raphael Collignon on clay. Raphael Collignon comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Lorenzo Sonego has won 6 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Raphael Collignon is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Collignon around 62%. The edge belongs to Collignon — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Maria Sakkari at 61% before the match, and Maria Sakkari won 6-1 6-2.
Pick: Sakkari
Win probability: 61% Sakkari · Most likely score: 2-0 (41%)
Wednesday's Athens (Greece) round of 16 pits Harriet Dart against Maria Sakkari on hard. Maria Sakkari is 6-4 across recent matches. Harriet Dart is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (5 of the last 10).
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Maria Sakkari simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Sakkari.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Petra Marcinko was our 60% pick, and won 7-6 7-6.
Pick: Marcinko
Win probability: 60% Marcinko · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)
Wednesday's Iasi round of 16 pits Elina Avanesyan against Petra Marcinko on clay. Petra Marcinko comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Elina Avanesyan is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10).
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
The serve is where this match separates: Marcinko has been winning 64.2% of first-serve points to Avanesyan's 57.6%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Avanesyan comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Marcinko — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Clara Burel was our 54% pick, and won 6-1 6-1.
Pick: Burel
Win probability: 54% Burel · Most likely score: 2-0 (34%)
Clara Burel and Elsa Jacquemot meet in the round of 16 at Iasi on Wednesday. Clara Burel comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Elsa Jacquemot limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Burel fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 63% on Arthur Rinderknech, who won 6-7 7-6 7-5.
Pick: Rinderknech
Win probability: 63% Rinderknech · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)
Arthur Rinderknech and Clement Tabur meet in the round of 16 at Gstaad on Wednesday. Arthur Rinderknech limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Clement Tabur is 3-7 across recent matches.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Hold strength tells the story — 75.1% versus 70.7% on first-serve points in Rinderknech's favor. The edge belongs to Rinderknech — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 62% on Alycia Parks, who won 6-7 6-2 7-5.
Pick: Parks
Win probability: 62% Parks · Most likely score: 2-0 (43%)
Alycia Parks and Mai Hontama meet in the round of 16 at Athens (Greece) on Wednesday. Alycia Parks is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Mai Hontama has dropped 2 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
The ledger favors Alycia Parks, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Mai Hontama. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Parks — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.6% versus 58.1% on first-serve points in Parks's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Parks.