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Gstaad Predictions & Picks — July 15, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 15, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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3 matches are on Wednesday's card at Gstaad, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Valentin Vacherot against Yannick Hanfmann in the round of 16. Our calls: Hanfmann over Vacherot, Collignon over Sonego, Rinderknech over Tabur. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

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Arthur Rinderknech vs. Clement Tabur

Arthur Rinderknech and Clement Tabur meet in the round of 16 at Gstaad on Wednesday. Arthur Rinderknech limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Clement Tabur is 3-7 across recent matches.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Hold strength tells the story — 75.1% versus 70.7% on first-serve points in Rinderknech's favor. The edge belongs to Rinderknech — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Pick: Rinderknech

Win probability: 63% Rinderknech · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 63% on Arthur Rinderknech, who won 6-7 7-6 7-5.

Lorenzo Sonego vs. Raphael Collignon

Wednesday's Gstaad round of 16 pits Lorenzo Sonego against Raphael Collignon on clay. Raphael Collignon comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Lorenzo Sonego has won 6 of the last 10.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Raphael Collignon is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Collignon around 62%. The edge belongs to Collignon — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Pick: Collignon

Win probability: 62% Collignon · Most likely score: 2-0 (39%)

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 62% on Raphael Collignon, who won 7-6 7-6.

Valentin Vacherot vs. Yannick Hanfmann

A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Valentin Vacherot goes up against Yannick Hanfmann in the Gstaad round of 16. Yannick Hanfmann has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Valentin Vacherot has won 6 of the last 10.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Hanfmann comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Hanfmann is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Hanfmann

Win probability: 50% Hanfmann · Most likely score: 2-1 (25%) · Could go long: 51% chance of a full three sets

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Yannick Hanfmann at 50% lost to Valentin Vacherot (4-6 6-3 6-4). It stays up, like every other miss.

Updated Jul 15, 2026, 8:14 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.