Bastad Predictions & Picks — July 16, 2026

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alejandro Tabilo goes up against Lautaro Midon in the Bastad round of 16. Alejandro Tabilo has dropped 4 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Lautaro Midon comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

The ledger favors Alejandro Tabilo, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Lautaro Midon. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Tabilo — worth more than the overall number this week.

The serve is where this match separates: Tabilo has been winning 71% of first-serve points to Midon's 64.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Midon comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tabilo.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Nikoloz Basilashvili goes up against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Bastad round of 16. Thiago Agustin Tirante has won 6 of the last 10. Nikoloz Basilashvili has won 7 of the last 10.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Thiago Agustin Tirante is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Tirante around 63%. The edge belongs to Tirante — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Andrea Pellegrino goes up against Andrey Rublev in the Bastad round of 16. Andrey Rublev is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (6 of the last 10). Andrea Pellegrino comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Rublev's 74.2% behind the first serve (against 66.8% for Pellegrino) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Pellegrino comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Rublev gets the nod on the finest of margins.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jesper De Jong goes up against Sebastian Baez in the Bastad round of 16. Jesper De Jong comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Sebastian Baez is 6-4 across recent matches.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

The serve is where this match separates: Jong has been winning 72.6% of first-serve points to Baez's 65.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Jong fractionally more likely to land the big points.