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Cordenons Predictions & Picks — July 16, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 16, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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2 matches are on Thursday's card at Cordenons, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Franco Roncadelli against Maxim Mrva in the round of 16. Our calls: Roncadelli over Mrva, Napolitano over Barrena. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

The boldest call on the card: Roncadelli over Mrva — the market disagrees with us there.

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Alex Barrena vs. Stefano Napolitano

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alex Barrena goes up against Stefano Napolitano in the Cordenons round of 16. Stefano Napolitano is 7-3 across recent matches. Alex Barrena has won 3 of the last 10.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Hold strength tells the story — 71.1% versus 63.7% on first-serve points in Napolitano's favor. The edge belongs to Napolitano — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Pick: Napolitano

Win probability: 66% Napolitano · Most likely score: 2-0 (41%)

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Stefano Napolitano at 66% before the match, and Stefano Napolitano won 6-4 3-6 7-6.

Franco Roncadelli vs. Maxim Mrva

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Franco Roncadelli goes up against Maxim Mrva in the Cordenons round of 16. Franco Roncadelli has won 5 of the last 10. Maxim Mrva is 6-4 across recent matches.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Roncadelli is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: RoncadelliUpset call

Upset call — the market makes Mrva the favorite; our numbers say Roncadelli.

Win probability: 51% Roncadelli · Most likely score: 2-0 (29%)

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Franco Roncadelli was our 51% pick, and won 6-2 4-6 7-6.

Updated Jul 15, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.