2 matches are on Thursday's card at Lincoln, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Y. Bu against Yibing Wu in the round of 16. Our calls: Wu over Bu, Mccabe over Tomic.
Pick: Wu
Win probability: 57% Wu · Most likely score: 2-0 (34%)
Y. Bu and Yibing Wu meet in the round of 16 at Lincoln on Thursday. Yibing Wu is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10). Y. Bu has won 4 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Yibing Wu is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Wu around 57%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Wu fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Mccabe
Win probability: 52% Mccabe · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Bernard Tomic goes up against James Mccabe in the Lincoln round of 16. James Mccabe is 5-5 across recent matches. Bernard Tomic is 5-5 across recent matches.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Mccabe gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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