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Bastad Predictions & Picks — July 18, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 18, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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2 matches are on Saturday's card at Bastad, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alejandro Tabilo against Andrey Rublev in the semifinal. Our calls: Tabilo over Rublev, Darderi over Vallejo. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

The boldest call on the card: Tabilo over Rublev — the market disagrees with us there.

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Daniel Vallejo vs. Luciano Darderi

A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Daniel Vallejo goes up against Luciano Darderi in the Bastad semifinal. Luciano Darderi is 5-5 across recent matches. Daniel Vallejo is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Darderi's 70.5% behind the first serve (against 66.4% for Vallejo) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Vallejo comes in off a compressed schedule; Darderi comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Darderi fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: Darderi

Win probability: 54% Darderi · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Luciano Darderi at 54% before the match, and Luciano Darderi won 6-4 6-7 6-3.

Alejandro Tabilo vs. Andrey Rublev

Alejandro Tabilo and Andrey Rublev meet in the semifinal at Bastad on Saturday. Alejandro Tabilo is 6-4 across recent matches. Andrey Rublev is 7-3 across recent matches.

Alejandro Tabilo has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 3 against Andrey Rublev.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Rublev comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Tabilo gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: TabiloUpset call

Upset call — the market makes Rublev the favorite; our numbers say Tabilo.

Win probability: 52% Tabilo · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%)

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Alejandro Tabilo at 52% lost to Andrey Rublev (6-4 4-6 6-4). It stays up, like every other miss.

Updated Jul 17, 2026, 6:31 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.