7 matches are on Saturday's card across 4 events, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alejandro Tabilo against Andrey Rublev in the semifinal. Our calls: Tabilo over Rublev, Darderi over Vallejo, Collignon over Cerundolo, Badosa over Zidansek, Sherif over Oliynykova, Tsitsipas over Shevchenko, and 1 more. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Tabilo over Rublev — the market disagrees with us there.
July 17, 2026 results: 14-12 → how our picks graded, match by match.
Alejandro Tabilo and Andrey Rublev meet in the semifinal at Bastad on Saturday. Alejandro Tabilo is 6-4 across recent matches. Andrey Rublev is 7-3 across recent matches.
Alejandro Tabilo has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 3 against Andrey Rublev.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Rublev comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Tabilo gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: TabiloUpset call
Upset call — the market makes Rublev the favorite; our numbers say Tabilo.
Win probability: 52% Tabilo · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Daniel Vallejo goes up against Luciano Darderi in the Bastad semifinal. Luciano Darderi is 5-5 across recent matches. Daniel Vallejo is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Darderi's 70.5% behind the first serve (against 66.4% for Vallejo) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Vallejo comes in off a compressed schedule; Darderi comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Darderi fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Darderi
Win probability: 54% Darderi · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Juan Manuel Cerundolo goes up against Raphael Collignon in the Gstaad semifinal. Raphael Collignon comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Juan Manuel Cerundolo comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo has had the better of this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 against Raphael Collignon. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Cerundolo — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 73.9% versus 68.2% on first-serve points in Collignon's favor. Cerundolo comes in off a compressed schedule; Collignon comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Collignon gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Collignon
Win probability: 55% Collignon · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Paula Badosa goes up against Tamara Zidansek in the Iasi semifinal. Paula Badosa has won 7 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Tamara Zidansek has won 6 of the last 10.
Tamara Zidansek has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Paula Badosa. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Zidansek — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 65.2% versus 58.1% on first-serve points in Badosa's favor. Badosa comes in off a compressed schedule; Zidansek comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Badosa is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Badosa
Win probability: 57% Badosa · Most likely score: 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Mayar Sherif goes up against Oleksandra Oliynykova in the Iasi semifinal. Mayar Sherif has won 7 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Oleksandra Oliynykova has won 6 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Oleksandra Oliynykova, 4-0 across their 4 meetings with Mayar Sherif. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Oliynykova — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Oliynykova comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Sherif fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Sherif
Win probability: 51% Sherif · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%) · Could go long: 46% chance of a full three sets
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Alexander Shevchenko goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Gstaad semifinal. Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 4 of the last 10. Alexander Shevchenko is 5-5 across recent matches.
Alexander Shevchenko has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
The serve is where this match separates: Tsitsipas has been winning 75% of first-serve points to Shevchenko's 70.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Shevchenko comes in off a compressed schedule; Tsitsipas comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tsitsipas.
Pick: Tsitsipas
Win probability: 63% Tsitsipas · Most likely score: 2-0 (39%)
The Umag title is on the line on Saturday, when Damir Dzumhur meets Daniel Merida Aguilar. Daniel Merida Aguilar brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Damir Dzumhur has won 4 in a row and 5 of the last 10 overall.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Daniel Merida Aguilar simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Aguilar — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Aguilar
Win probability: 68% Aguilar · Most likely score: 2-0 (41%)