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Lincoln Predictions & Picks — July 18, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 18, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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One match is on Saturday's card at Lincoln, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Bernard Tomic against Steve Johnson in the semifinal. Our calls: Johnson over Tomic.

Bernard Tomic vs. Steve Johnson

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Steve Johnson at 53%, but Bernard Tomic won 6-7(5) 6-3 6-2.

Pick: Johnson

Win probability: 53% Johnson · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Bernard Tomic goes up against Steve Johnson in the Lincoln semifinal. Steve Johnson is 4-6 across recent matches. Bernard Tomic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

The ledger favors Steve Johnson, 3-0 across their 3 meetings with Bernard Tomic. On hard specifically it reads 2-0 Johnson — worth more than the overall number this week.

The serve is where this match separates: Johnson has been winning 74.6% of first-serve points to Tomic's 71.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Tomic comes in off a compressed schedule; Johnson comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Johnson gets the nod on the finest of margins.

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Updated Jul 18, 2026, 7:30 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.