A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Bernard Tomic goes up against Steve Johnson in the Lincoln semifinal. Steve Johnson is 4-6 across recent matches. Bernard Tomic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The ledger favors Steve Johnson, 3-0 across their 3 meetings with Bernard Tomic. On hard specifically it reads 2-0 Johnson — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Johnson has been winning 74.6% of first-serve points to Tomic's 71.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Tomic comes in off a compressed schedule; Johnson comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Johnson gets the nod on the finest of margins.