2 matches are on Wednesday's card at Winnipeg, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Toby Samuel against Yosuke Watanuki in the round of 16. Our calls: Samuel over Watanuki, Sekulic over Mochizuki. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Sekulic over Mochizuki — the market disagrees with us there.
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Philip Sekulic and Shintaro Mochizuki meet in the round of 32 at Winnipeg on Wednesday. Philip Sekulic has won 6 of the last 10. Shintaro Mochizuki is 7-3 across recent matches.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. The edge belongs to Sekulic — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: SekulicUpset call
Upset call — the market makes Mochizuki the favorite; our numbers say Sekulic.
Win probability: 67% Sekulic · Sets: 3 (46%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Toby Samuel goes up against Yosuke Watanuki in the Winnipeg round of 16. Toby Samuel comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Yosuke Watanuki comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Samuel comes in off a compressed schedule; Watanuki comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Samuel.
Pick: Samuel
Win probability: 68% Samuel · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)