Estoril Predictions & Picks — July 23, 2026

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Andrey Rublev goes up against Timofey Skatov in the Estoril round of 16. Andrey Rublev has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Timofey Skatov has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Rublev's 74.2% behind the first serve (against 66.2% for Skatov) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Skatov comes in off a compressed schedule. If Rublev plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Luciano Darderi goes up against Pedro Martinez in the Estoril round of 16. Luciano Darderi is 6-4 across recent matches. Pedro Martinez comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

Luciano Darderi leads the head-to-head 3-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Darderi — worth more than the overall number this week.

Darderi's 70.5% behind the first serve (against 64.9% for Martinez) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Darderi plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

Thursday's Estoril round of 16 pits Gonzalo Bueno against Jaime Faria on clay. Jaime Faria has won 5 of the last 10. Gonzalo Bueno has won 5 of the last 10.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Faria's 72.1% behind the first serve (against 62.4% for Bueno) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Anything other than a Faria win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Thursday's Estoril round of 16 pits Luca Van Assche against Pablo Carreno Busta on clay. Pablo Carreno Busta has won 6 of the last 10. Luca Van Assche comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.

Luca Van Assche leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Busta comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Busta.