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Estoril Predictions & Picks — July 24, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 24, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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3 matches are on Friday's card at Estoril, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jaime Faria against Luciano Darderi in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Darderi over Faria, Rublev over Assche, Blockx over Burruchaga. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

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Alexander Blockx vs. Roman Andres Burruchaga

Friday's Estoril quarterfinal pits Alexander Blockx against Roman Andres Burruchaga on clay. Alexander Blockx is 6-4 across recent matches. Roman Andres Burruchaga comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

The serve is where this match separates: Blockx has been winning 76.2% of first-serve points to Burruchaga's 66%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Blockx should have enough here, though Burruchaga has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Pick: Blockx

Win probability: 71% Blockx · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Alexander Blockx was our 71% pick, and won 6-4 5-7 6-4.

Andrey Rublev vs. Luca Van Assche

Andrey Rublev and Luca Van Assche meet in the quarterfinal at Estoril on Friday. Andrey Rublev brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Luca Van Assche is 8-2 across recent matches.

Andrey Rublev leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.

Rublev's 74.1% behind the first serve (against 67.6% for Assche) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Rublev plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

Pick: Rublev

Win probability: 72% Rublev · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 72% on Andrey Rublev; Luca Van Assche won 3-6 6-3 6-4.

Jaime Faria vs. Luciano Darderi

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Jaime Faria goes up against Luciano Darderi in the Estoril quarterfinal. Luciano Darderi has won 6 of the last 10. Jaime Faria has won 6 of the last 10.

Jaime Faria has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Luciano Darderi. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Faria — worth more than the overall number this week.

Luciano Darderi is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Darderi around 60%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Darderi is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Darderi

Win probability: 60% Darderi · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Luciano Darderi was our 60% pick, and won 2-6 7-5 6-2.

Updated Jul 23, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.