2 matches are on Saturday's card at Segovia, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Matteo Martineau against Oliver Crawford in the semifinal. Our calls: Crawford over Martineau, Smith over Pavlovic.
Pick: Smith
Win probability: 65% Smith · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
Keegan Smith and Luka Pavlovic meet in the semifinal at Segovia on Saturday. Keegan Smith has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Luka Pavlovic has won 3 in a row and 5 of the last 10 overall.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. The edge belongs to Smith — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Crawford
Win probability: 53% Crawford · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Matteo Martineau goes up against Oliver Crawford in the Segovia semifinal. Oliver Crawford has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall. Matteo Martineau brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 5-5 across the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Crawford is exactly that — a lean.
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