5 matches are on Tuesday's card at Bonn, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Guy Den Ouden against Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in the round of 32. Our calls: Ouden over Almeida, Gentzsch over Silva, Topo over Moller, Squire over Tabur, Kotov over Galan.
The boldest call on the card: Kotov over Galan — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: SquireUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Tabur; our numbers say Squire.
Win probability: 51% Squire · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (26%)
Tuesday's Bonn round of 32 pits Clement Tabur against Henri Squire on clay. Henri Squire has won 6 of the last 10. Clement Tabur comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Henri Squire simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Squire is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: TopoUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Moller the favorite; our numbers say Topo.
Win probability: 55% Topo · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
Elmer Moller and Marko Topo meet in the round of 32 at Bonn on Tuesday. Marko Topo is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10). Elmer Moller is 7-3 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Topo has been winning 67.8% of first-serve points to Moller's 62.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Topo fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Ouden
Win probability: 55% Ouden · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Guy Den Ouden goes up against Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in the Bonn round of 32. Guy Den Ouden brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida has won 8 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 68.2% versus 63.8% on first-serve points in Ouden's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Ouden is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Gentzsch
Win probability: 60% Gentzsch · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Tuesday's Bonn round of 32 pits Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva against Tom Gentzsch on clay. Tom Gentzsch is 6-4 across recent matches. Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 72.1% versus 66.4% on first-serve points in Gentzsch's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Gentzsch fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: KotovUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Galan; our numbers say Kotov.
Win probability: 59% Kotov · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Daniel Elahi Galan and Pavel Kotov meet in the round of 32 at Bonn on Tuesday. Pavel Kotov is 6-4 across recent matches. Daniel Elahi Galan limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kotov fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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