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Vancouver Predictions & Picks — July 28, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 28, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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10 matches are on Tuesday's card at Vancouver, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Michael Mmoh against Yu Hsiou Hsu in the round of 32. Our calls: Mmoh over Hsu, Holmgren over Grenier, Broom over Mochizuki, Zhang over Wolf, Bonzi over Bicknell, Popyrin over Andrade, and 4 more. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

The boldest call on the card: Broom over Mochizuki — the market disagrees with us there.

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Greet Minnen vs. Maddison Inglis

Tuesday's Vancouver round of 32 pits Greet Minnen against Maddison Inglis on hard. Greet Minnen has won 6 of the last 10. Maddison Inglis is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10).

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Hold strength tells the story — 64.5% versus 59.7% on first-serve points in Minnen's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Minnen.

Pick: Minnen

Win probability: 64% Minnen · Sets: 2 (68%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)

✗ Pick wrongMissed it — and it stays on the record. We had Greet Minnen at 64%, but Maddison Inglis won 6-1 6-3.

Benjamin Bonzi vs. Blaise Bicknell

Tuesday's Vancouver round of 32 pits Benjamin Bonzi against Blaise Bicknell on hard. Benjamin Bonzi is 6-4 across recent matches. Blaise Bicknell is 3-7 across recent matches.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

The serve is where this match separates: Bonzi has been winning 70.6% of first-serve points to Bicknell's 67.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Bonzi win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Pick: Bonzi

Win probability: 75% Bonzi · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (52%)

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Benjamin Bonzi at 75% before the match, and Benjamin Bonzi won 3-6 6-3 6-4.

Alexei Popyrin vs. Andres Andrade

Alexei Popyrin and Andres Andrade meet in the round of 32 at Vancouver on Tuesday. Alexei Popyrin limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Andres Andrade is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).

The serve is where this match separates: Popyrin has been winning 74.6% of first-serve points to Andrade's 66.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Andrade needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Pick: Popyrin

Win probability: 73% Popyrin · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)

✗ Pick wrongMissed it — and it stays on the record. We had Alexei Popyrin at 73%, but Andres Andrade won 7-5 3-6 6-1.

Charles Broom vs. Shintaro Mochizuki

Tuesday's Vancouver round of 32 pits Charles Broom against Shintaro Mochizuki on hard. Charles Broom is 3-7 across recent matches. Shintaro Mochizuki is 7-3 across recent matches.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Charles Broom simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Broom gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: BroomUpset call

Upset call — the market favors Mochizuki; our numbers say Broom.

Win probability: 60% Broom · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)

✗ Pick wrongMissed it — and it stays on the record. We had Charles Broom at 60%, but Shintaro Mochizuki won 2-6 6-2 6-4.

D. Chan vs. Dane Sweeny

Tuesday's Vancouver round of 32 pits D. Chan against Dane Sweeny on hard. Dane Sweeny limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. D. Chan has won 1 of the last 10.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Sweeny fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: Sweeny

Win probability: 60% Sweeny · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Dane Sweeny was our 60% pick, and won 6-4 6-1.

August Holmgren vs. Hugo Grenier

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when August Holmgren goes up against Hugo Grenier in the Vancouver round of 32. August Holmgren is 5-5 across recent matches. Hugo Grenier is 4-6 across recent matches.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Hold strength tells the story — 75.7% versus 72.2% on first-serve points in Holmgren's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Holmgren is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Holmgren

Win probability: 58% Holmgren · Sets: 3 (47%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)

J J Wolf vs. Ze Zhang

Tuesday's Vancouver round of 32 pits J J Wolf against Ze Zhang on hard. Ze Zhang is 5-5 across recent matches. J J Wolf is 2-8 across recent matches.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Ze Zhang is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Zhang around 67%. Zhang should have enough here, though Wolf has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Pick: Zhang

Win probability: 67% Zhang · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)

✗ Pick wrongMissed it — and it stays on the record. We had Ze Zhang at 67%, but J J Wolf won 7-6 3-6 6-4.

En Shuo Liang vs. Mananchaya Sawangkaew

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when En Shuo Liang goes up against Mananchaya Sawangkaew in the Vancouver round of 32. Mananchaya Sawangkaew has won 6 of the last 10. En Shuo Liang comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Sawangkaew's 64.2% behind the first serve (against 59.2% for Liang) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Liang needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Pick: Sawangkaew

Win probability: 81% Sawangkaew · Sets: 2 (71%) · most likely score 2-0 (59%)

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Mananchaya Sawangkaew at 81% before the match, and Mananchaya Sawangkaew won 6-2 6-4.

Kayla Day vs. Mai Hontama

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Kayla Day goes up against Mai Hontama in the Vancouver round of 32. Kayla Day limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Mai Hontama comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Day's 63.4% behind the first serve (against 58.1% for Hontama) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Day — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Pick: Day

Win probability: 64% Day · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)

✗ Pick wrongMissed it — and it stays on the record. We had Kayla Day at 64%, but Mai Hontama won 6-7 6-3 6-4.

Michael Mmoh vs. Yu Hsiou Hsu

Tuesday's Vancouver round of 32 pits Michael Mmoh against Yu Hsiou Hsu on hard. Michael Mmoh has won 8 of the last 10. Yu Hsiou Hsu has won 5 of the last 10.

Hold strength tells the story — 69.9% versus 65.1% on first-serve points in Mmoh's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Mmoh.

Pick: Mmoh

Win probability: 64% Mmoh · Sets: 2 (58%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Michael Mmoh was our 64% pick, and won 6-3 6-4.

Updated Jul 27, 2026, 2:31 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.