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Vancouver Predictions & Picks — July 28, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 28, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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10 matches are on Tuesday's card at Vancouver, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Michael Mmoh against Yu Hsiou Hsu in the round of 32. Our calls: Mmoh over Hsu, Holmgren over Grenier, Zhang over Wolf, Broom over Mochizuki, Popyrin over Andrade, Bonzi over Bicknell, and 4 more.

The boldest call on the card: Broom over Mochizuki — the market disagrees with us there.

Greet Minnen vs. Maddison Inglis

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Greet Minnen at 64%, but Maddison Inglis won 6-1 6-3.

Pick: Minnen

Win probability: 64% Minnen · Sets: 2 (68%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)

Tuesday's Vancouver round of 32 pits Greet Minnen against Maddison Inglis on hard. Greet Minnen has won 6 of the last 10. Maddison Inglis is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10).

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Hold strength tells the story — 64.5% versus 59.7% on first-serve points in Minnen's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Minnen.

Benjamin Bonzi vs. Blaise Bicknell

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Benjamin Bonzi at 75% before the match, and Benjamin Bonzi won 3-6 6-3 6-4.

Pick: Bonzi

Win probability: 75% Bonzi · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (52%)

Tuesday's Vancouver round of 32 pits Benjamin Bonzi against Blaise Bicknell on hard. Benjamin Bonzi is 6-4 across recent matches. Blaise Bicknell is 3-7 across recent matches.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

The serve is where this match separates: Bonzi has been winning 70.6% of first-serve points to Bicknell's 67.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Bonzi win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Alexei Popyrin vs. Andres Andrade

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Alexei Popyrin at 73%, but Andres Andrade won 7-5 3-6 6-1.

Pick: Popyrin

Win probability: 73% Popyrin · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)

Alexei Popyrin and Andres Andrade meet in the round of 32 at Vancouver on Tuesday. Alexei Popyrin limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Andres Andrade is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).

The serve is where this match separates: Popyrin has been winning 74.6% of first-serve points to Andrade's 66.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Andrade needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Charles Broom vs. Shintaro Mochizuki

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Charles Broom at 60%, but Shintaro Mochizuki won 2-6 6-2 6-4.

Pick: BroomUpset call

Upset call: the market favors Mochizuki; our numbers say Broom.

Win probability: 60% Broom · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)

Tuesday's Vancouver round of 32 pits Charles Broom against Shintaro Mochizuki on hard. Charles Broom is 3-7 across recent matches. Shintaro Mochizuki is 7-3 across recent matches.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Broom gets the nod on the finest of margins.

D. Chan vs. Dane Sweeny

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Dane Sweeny was our 60% pick, and won 6-4 6-1.

Pick: Sweeny

Win probability: 60% Sweeny · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)

Tuesday's Vancouver round of 32 pits D. Chan against Dane Sweeny on hard. Dane Sweeny limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. D. Chan has won 1 of the last 10.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Sweeny fractionally more likely to land the big points.

August Holmgren vs. Hugo Grenier

Pick: Holmgren

Win probability: 58% Holmgren · Sets: 3 (47%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when August Holmgren goes up against Hugo Grenier in the Vancouver round of 32. August Holmgren is 5-5 across recent matches. Hugo Grenier is 4-6 across recent matches.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Hold strength tells the story — 75.7% versus 72.2% on first-serve points in Holmgren's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Holmgren is exactly that — a lean.

J J Wolf vs. Ze Zhang

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Ze Zhang at 67%, but J J Wolf won 7-6 3-6 6-4.

Pick: Zhang

Win probability: 67% Zhang · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)

Tuesday's Vancouver round of 32 pits J J Wolf against Ze Zhang on hard. Ze Zhang is 5-5 across recent matches. J J Wolf is 2-8 across recent matches.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Zhang should have enough here, though Wolf has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

En Shuo Liang vs. Mananchaya Sawangkaew

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Mananchaya Sawangkaew at 81% before the match, and Mananchaya Sawangkaew won 6-2 6-4.

Pick: Sawangkaew

Win probability: 81% Sawangkaew · Sets: 2 (71%) · most likely score 2-0 (59%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when En Shuo Liang goes up against Mananchaya Sawangkaew in the Vancouver round of 32. Mananchaya Sawangkaew has won 6 of the last 10. En Shuo Liang comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Sawangkaew's 64.2% behind the first serve (against 59.2% for Liang) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Liang needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Kayla Day vs. Mai Hontama

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Kayla Day at 64%, but Mai Hontama won 6-7 6-3 6-4.

Pick: Day

Win probability: 64% Day · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Kayla Day goes up against Mai Hontama in the Vancouver round of 32. Kayla Day limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Mai Hontama comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Day's 63.4% behind the first serve (against 58.1% for Hontama) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Day — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Michael Mmoh vs. Yu Hsiou Hsu

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Michael Mmoh was our 64% pick, and won 6-3 6-4.

Pick: Mmoh

Win probability: 64% Mmoh · Sets: 2 (58%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)

Tuesday's Vancouver round of 32 pits Michael Mmoh against Yu Hsiou Hsu on hard. Michael Mmoh has won 8 of the last 10. Yu Hsiou Hsu has won 5 of the last 10.

Hold strength tells the story — 69.9% versus 65.1% on first-serve points in Mmoh's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Mmoh.

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Updated Jul 27, 2026, 2:31 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.