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Washington Predictions & Picks — July 28, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 28, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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4 matches are on Tuesday's card at Washington, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexandra Eala against Qinwen Zheng in the round of 32. Our calls: Zheng over Eala, Kalinskaya over Kasatkina, Bucsa over Kudermetova, Li over Frech. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

The boldest call on the card: Bucsa over Kudermetova — the market disagrees with us there.

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Anna Kalinskaya vs. Daria Kasatkina

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Anna Kalinskaya goes up against Daria Kasatkina in the Washington round of 32. Anna Kalinskaya comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Daria Kasatkina has won 6 of the last 10.

Daria Kasatkina leads the head-to-head 3-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 2-1 Kasatkina — worth more than the overall number this week.

Hold strength tells the story — 62.9% versus 59% on first-serve points in Kalinskaya's favor. The edge belongs to Kalinskaya — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Pick: Kalinskaya

Win probability: 68% Kalinskaya · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (46%)

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 68% on Anna Kalinskaya, who won 6-4 6-1.

Alexandra Eala vs. Qinwen Zheng

Tuesday's Washington round of 32 pits Alexandra Eala against Qinwen Zheng on hard. Qinwen Zheng is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Alexandra Eala is 6-4 across recent matches.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Zheng's 72.1% behind the first serve (against 60.3% for Eala) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Zheng should have enough here, though Eala has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Pick: Zheng

Win probability: 64% Zheng · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 64% on Qinwen Zheng; Alexandra Eala won 4-6 6-4 6-1.

Ann Li vs. Magdalena Frech

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Ann Li goes up against Magdalena Frech in the Washington round of 32. Ann Li limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Magdalena Frech is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (2 of the last 10).

The ledger favors Ann Li, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Magdalena Frech. On hard specifically it reads 2-0 Li — worth more than the overall number this week.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Li fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: Li

Win probability: 58% Li · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 58% on Ann Li; Magdalena Frech won 6-4 6-3.

Cristina Bucsa vs. Polina Kudermetova

Tuesday's Washington round of 32 pits Cristina Bucsa against Polina Kudermetova on hard. Cristina Bucsa has dropped 5 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Polina Kudermetova limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Bucsa fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: BucsaUpset call

Upset call — the market makes Kudermetova the favorite; our numbers say Bucsa.

Win probability: 51% Bucsa · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Cristina Bucsa at 51% lost to Polina Kudermetova (5-7 7-6 6-0). It stays up, like every other miss.

Updated Jul 27, 2026, 2:01 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.