Powered by moretime.ai
Maiden.bet

Los Cabos Predictions & Picks — July 29, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 29, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

Share card

6 matches are on Wednesday's card at Los Cabos, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Arthur Gea against Soon Woo Kwon in the round of 32. Our calls: Kwon over Gea, Brooksby over Moutet, Shapovalov over Hijikata, Landaluce over Zheng, Walton over Svrcina, Mendez over Shimabukuro. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

The boldest call on the card: Mendez over Shimabukuro — the market disagrees with us there.

Get tomorrow's picks by email

One email a day with our full card. No hype, no locks — just the numbers we'll be graded on. Unsubscribe anytime.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez vs. Sho Shimabukuro

Wednesday's Los Cabos round of 32 pits Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez against Sho Shimabukuro on hard. Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Sho Shimabukuro limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Mendez is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: MendezUpset call

Upset call — the market makes Shimabukuro the favorite; our numbers say Mendez.

Win probability: 52% Mendez · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (26%)

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez at 52% before the match, and Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez won 6-7 7-5 6-2.

Denis Shapovalov vs. Rinky Hijikata

A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Denis Shapovalov goes up against Rinky Hijikata in the Los Cabos round of 32. Denis Shapovalov comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Rinky Hijikata has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

Denis Shapovalov leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Shapovalov — worth more than the overall number this week.

Hold strength tells the story — 74.7% versus 68.8% on first-serve points in Shapovalov's favor. Little separates them; Shapovalov gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: Shapovalov

Win probability: 59% Shapovalov · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 59% on Denis Shapovalov, who won 2-6 6-3 6-2.

Arthur Gea vs. Soon Woo Kwon

Wednesday's Los Cabos round of 32 pits Arthur Gea against Soon Woo Kwon on hard. Soon Woo Kwon has won 8 of the last 10. Arthur Gea has won 7 of the last 10.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kwon is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Kwon

Win probability: 58% Kwon · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 58% on Soon Woo Kwon; Arthur Gea won 6-4 6-7 6-2.

Corentin Moutet vs. Jenson Brooksby

A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Corentin Moutet goes up against Jenson Brooksby in the Los Cabos round of 32. Jenson Brooksby is 4-6 across recent matches. Corentin Moutet has dropped 3 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.

The ledger favors Corentin Moutet, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Jenson Brooksby. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Moutet — worth more than the overall number this week.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Brooksby is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Brooksby

Win probability: 52% Brooksby · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Jenson Brooksby at 52% before the match, and Jenson Brooksby won 6-4 6-4.

Adam Walton vs. Dalibor Svrcina

Adam Walton and Dalibor Svrcina meet in the round of 32 at Los Cabos on Wednesday. Adam Walton is 6-4 across recent matches. Dalibor Svrcina has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Walton's 70.9% behind the first serve (against 62.8% for Svrcina) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Walton should have enough here, though Svrcina has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Pick: Walton

Win probability: 65% Walton · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Adam Walton at 65% lost to Dalibor Svrcina (6-7 7-6 6-3). It stays up, like every other miss.

Martin Landaluce vs. Michael Zheng

Wednesday's Los Cabos round of 32 pits Martin Landaluce against Michael Zheng on hard. Martin Landaluce limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Michael Zheng is 5-5 across recent matches.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Landaluce gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: LandaluceUpset call

Upset call — the market makes Zheng the favorite; our numbers say Landaluce.

Win probability: 50% Landaluce · Sets: 3 (52%) · most likely score 2-1 (27%)

✗ Pick wrongMissed it — and it stays on the record. We had Martin Landaluce at 50%, but Michael Zheng won 6-4 6-3.

Updated Jul 28, 2026, 2:01 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.