4 matches are on Thursday's card at Washington, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Brandon Nakashima against Jakub Mensik in the round of 16. Our calls: Mensik over Nakashima, Shelton over Humbert, Jodar over Nishikori, Tabilo over Atmane. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Tabilo over Atmane — the market disagrees with us there.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Kei Nishikori goes up against Rafael Jodar in the Washington round of 16. Rafael Jodar has won 8 of the last 10. Kei Nishikori is 5-5 across recent matches.
Rafael Jodar simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Jodar gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Jodar
Win probability: 56% Jodar · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
Ben Shelton and Ugo Humbert meet in the round of 16 at Washington on Thursday. Ben Shelton has dropped 2 straight and sits at 7-3 over the last ten. Ugo Humbert is 7-3 across recent matches.
Ben Shelton is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shelton around 57%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Shelton is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 57% Shelton · Sets: 2 (58%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
Thursday's Washington round of 16 pits Alejandro Tabilo against Terence Atmane on hard. Alejandro Tabilo is 4-6 across recent matches. Terence Atmane is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (2 of the last 10).
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tabilo is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: TabiloUpset call
Upset call — the market makes Atmane the favorite; our numbers say Tabilo.
Win probability: 58% Tabilo · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
Brandon Nakashima and Jakub Mensik meet in the round of 16 at Washington on Thursday. Jakub Mensik is 7-3 across recent matches. Brandon Nakashima is 7-3 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Mensik is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Mensik
Win probability: 50% Mensik · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)