4 matches are on Friday's card at Los Cabos, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Arthur Gea against Francisco Cerundolo in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Cerundolo over Gea, Wong over Brooksby, Shapovalov over Svrcina, Norrie over Tomic. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Wong over Brooksby — the market disagrees with us there.
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Friday's Los Cabos quarterfinal pits Dalibor Svrcina against Denis Shapovalov on hard. Denis Shapovalov has won 4 of the last 10. Dalibor Svrcina is 5-5 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.7% versus 62.8% on first-serve points in Shapovalov's favor. The edge belongs to Shapovalov — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Shapovalov
Win probability: 66% Shapovalov · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)
Coleman Wong and Jenson Brooksby meet in the quarterfinal at Los Cabos on Friday. Coleman Wong has won 5 of the last 10. Jenson Brooksby has won 5 of the last 10.
Wong's 73.6% behind the first serve (against 66.8% for Brooksby) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Wong gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: WongUpset call
Upset call — the market favors Brooksby; our numbers say Wong.
Win probability: 53% Wong · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Arthur Gea and Francisco Cerundolo meet in the quarterfinal at Los Cabos on Friday. Francisco Cerundolo is 7-3 across recent matches. Arthur Gea has won 7 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Cerundolo fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Cerundolo
Win probability: 51% Cerundolo · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Bernard Tomic goes up against Cameron Norrie in the Los Cabos quarterfinal. Cameron Norrie comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Bernard Tomic is rolling — 6 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
Cameron Norrie is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Norrie around 58%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Norrie is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Norrie
Win probability: 58% Norrie · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)