4 matches are on Friday's card at Los Cabos, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Arthur Gea against Francisco Cerundolo in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Cerundolo over Gea, Shapovalov over Svrcina, Norrie over Tomic, Wong over Brooksby.
The boldest call on the card: Wong over Brooksby — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Shapovalov
Win probability: 66% Shapovalov · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)
Friday's Los Cabos quarterfinal pits Dalibor Svrcina against Denis Shapovalov on hard. Denis Shapovalov has won 4 of the last 10. Dalibor Svrcina is 5-5 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.7% versus 62.8% on first-serve points in Shapovalov's favor. The edge belongs to Shapovalov — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: WongUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Brooksby; our numbers say Wong.
Win probability: 53% Wong · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Coleman Wong and Jenson Brooksby meet in the quarterfinal at Los Cabos on Friday. Coleman Wong has won 5 of the last 10. Jenson Brooksby has won 5 of the last 10.
Wong's 73.6% behind the first serve (against 66.8% for Brooksby) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Wong gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Cerundolo
Win probability: 51% Cerundolo · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Arthur Gea and Francisco Cerundolo meet in the quarterfinal at Los Cabos on Friday. Francisco Cerundolo is 7-3 across recent matches. Arthur Gea has won 7 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Cerundolo fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Norrie
Win probability: 58% Norrie · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Bernard Tomic goes up against Cameron Norrie in the Los Cabos quarterfinal. Cameron Norrie comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Bernard Tomic is rolling — 6 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
Cameron Norrie is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Norrie around 58%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Norrie is exactly that — a lean.
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