Washington & Los Cabos predictions, July 31, 2026: Minaur vs Nakashima, Gea vs Cerundolo

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alex De Minaur goes up against Brandon Nakashima in the Washington quarterfinal. Alex De Minaur has won 7 of the last 10. Brandon Nakashima is 7-3 across recent matches.

Alex De Minaur is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Minaur around 52%. Minaur comes in off a compressed schedule; Nakashima comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Minaur is exactly that — a lean.

Arthur Gea and Francisco Cerundolo meet in the quarterfinal at Los Cabos on Friday. Francisco Cerundolo is 7-3 across recent matches. Arthur Gea has won 7 of the last 10.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Cerundolo fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Friday's Washington quarterfinal pits Lorenzo Musetti against Rafael Jodar on hard. Lorenzo Musetti has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Rafael Jodar comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Musetti gets the nod on the finest of margins.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alex Michelsen goes up against Taylor Fritz in the Washington quarterfinal. Taylor Fritz comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Alex Michelsen is rolling — 6 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.

Hold strength tells the story — 74.6% versus 69.7% on first-serve points in Fritz's favor. Little separates them; Fritz gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Anna Kalinskaya and Jessica Pegula meet in the quarterfinal at Washington on Friday. Jessica Pegula comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Anna Kalinskaya is 7-3 across recent matches.

Jessica Pegula simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Pegula.

Friday's Washington quarterfinal pits Diana Shnaider against Liudmila Samsonova on hard. Diana Shnaider is 6-4 across recent matches. Liudmila Samsonova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Shnaider is exactly that — a lean.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alexandra Eala goes up against Elina Svitolina in the Washington quarterfinal. Elina Svitolina comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Alexandra Eala comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Hold strength tells the story — 63.7% versus 60.3% on first-serve points in Svitolina's favor. The edge belongs to Svitolina — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Coleman Wong and Jenson Brooksby meet in the quarterfinal at Los Cabos on Friday. Coleman Wong has won 5 of the last 10. Jenson Brooksby has won 5 of the last 10.

Wong's 73.6% behind the first serve (against 66.8% for Brooksby) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Wong gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Naomi Osaka meet in the quarterfinal at Washington on Friday. Naomi Osaka has won 8 of the last 10. Elisabetta Cocciaretto is 5-5 across recent matches.

Osaka's 71.1% behind the first serve (against 61.1% for Cocciaretto) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Osaka.

Friday's Los Cabos quarterfinal pits Dalibor Svrcina against Denis Shapovalov on hard. Denis Shapovalov has won 4 of the last 10. Dalibor Svrcina is 5-5 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 74.7% versus 62.8% on first-serve points in Shapovalov's favor. The edge belongs to Shapovalov — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Bernard Tomic goes up against Cameron Norrie in the Los Cabos quarterfinal. Cameron Norrie comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Bernard Tomic is rolling — 6 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.

Cameron Norrie is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Norrie around 58%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Norrie is exactly that — a lean.

Elina Svitolina and Polina Kudermetova meet in the round of 16 at Washington on Friday. Elina Svitolina is 7-3 across recent matches. Polina Kudermetova is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10).

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Kudermetova comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Svitolina.