4 matches are on Friday's card at San Marino, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexandre Muller against Mili Poljicak in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Poljicak over Muller, Varillas over Skatov, Acosta over Angelo, Monteiro over Gaubas. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Monteiro over Gaubas — the market disagrees with us there.
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Friday's San Marino quarterfinal pits Alexandre Muller against Mili Poljicak on clay. Mili Poljicak comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Alexandre Muller is 2-8 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.4% versus 67.2% on first-serve points in Poljicak's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Poljicak is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: PoljicakUpset call
Upset call — the market favors Muller; our numbers say Poljicak.
Win probability: 50% Poljicak · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 2-1 (26%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Juan Pablo Varillas goes up against Timofey Skatov in the San Marino quarterfinal. Juan Pablo Varillas has won 6 of the last 10. Timofey Skatov has won 5 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Varillas comes in off a compressed schedule; Skatov comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Varillas is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: VarillasUpset call
Upset call — the market favors Skatov; our numbers say Varillas.
Win probability: 51% Varillas · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (26%)
Facundo Diaz Acosta and Juan Carlos Prado Angelo meet in the quarterfinal at San Marino on Friday. Facundo Diaz Acosta comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Acosta — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Acosta
Win probability: 69% Acosta · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Thiago Monteiro goes up against Vilius Gaubas in the San Marino quarterfinal. Thiago Monteiro has won 7 of the last 10. Vilius Gaubas comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 72% versus 65% on first-serve points in Monteiro's favor. Monteiro comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Monteiro.
Pick: MonteiroUpset call
Upset call — the market makes Gaubas the favorite; our numbers say Monteiro.
Win probability: 61% Monteiro · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 2-1 (31%)