4 matches are on Friday's card at San Marino, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Facundo Diaz Acosta against Juan Carlos Prado Angelo in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Acosta over Angelo, Poljicak over Muller, Varillas over Skatov, Monteiro over Gaubas.
The boldest call on the card: Monteiro over Gaubas — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: PoljicakUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Muller; our numbers say Poljicak.
Win probability: 50% Poljicak · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 2-1 (26%)
Friday's San Marino quarterfinal pits Alexandre Muller against Mili Poljicak on clay. Mili Poljicak comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Alexandre Muller is 2-8 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.4% versus 67.2% on first-serve points in Poljicak's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Poljicak is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: VarillasUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Skatov; our numbers say Varillas.
Win probability: 51% Varillas · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (26%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Juan Pablo Varillas goes up against Timofey Skatov in the San Marino quarterfinal. Juan Pablo Varillas has won 6 of the last 10. Timofey Skatov has won 5 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Varillas comes in off a compressed schedule; Skatov comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Varillas is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Acosta
Win probability: 69% Acosta · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Facundo Diaz Acosta and Juan Carlos Prado Angelo meet in the quarterfinal at San Marino on Friday. Facundo Diaz Acosta comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Acosta — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: MonteiroUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Gaubas the favorite; our numbers say Monteiro.
Win probability: 61% Monteiro · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 2-1 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Thiago Monteiro goes up against Vilius Gaubas in the San Marino quarterfinal. Thiago Monteiro has won 7 of the last 10. Vilius Gaubas comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 72% versus 65% on first-serve points in Monteiro's favor. Monteiro comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Monteiro.
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