2 matches are on Saturday's card at Washington, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Diana Shnaider against Jessica Pegula in the semifinal. Our calls: Pegula over Shnaider, Osaka over Eala. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Diana Shnaider goes up against Jessica Pegula in the Washington semifinal. Jessica Pegula is 8-2 across recent matches. Diana Shnaider has won 6 of the last 10.
Jessica Pegula is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Pegula around 68%. The edge belongs to Pegula — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Pegula
Win probability: 68% Pegula · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)
Alexandra Eala and Naomi Osaka meet in the semifinal at Washington on Saturday. Naomi Osaka has won 9 of the last 10. Alexandra Eala comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Osaka's 71.1% behind the first serve (against 60.3% for Eala) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Eala comes in off a compressed schedule; Osaka comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Osaka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Osaka
Win probability: 62% Osaka · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)