A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Alejandro Tabilo goes up against Rafael Jodar in the Washington semifinal. Rafael Jodar brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Alejandro Tabilo comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Rafael Jodar is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Jodar around 54%. Tabilo comes in off a compressed schedule; Jodar comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Jodar fractionally more likely to land the big points.