5 matches are on Saturday's card at Montreal, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jiri Lehecka against Rafael Jodar in the round of 16. Our calls: Jodar over Lehecka, Paul over Tien, Nakashima over Rinderknech, Borges over Darderi, Tirante over Popyrin.
The boldest call on the card: Tirante over Popyrin — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Paul
Win probability: 54% Paul · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Saturday's Montreal round of 32 pits Learner Tien against Tommy Paul on hard. Tommy Paul limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Learner Tien limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Paul fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Nakashima
Win probability: 57% Nakashima · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Saturday's Montreal round of 16 pits Arthur Rinderknech against Brandon Nakashima on hard. Brandon Nakashima has won 7 of the last 10. Arthur Rinderknech comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Brandon Nakashima is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Nakashima around 57%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Nakashima fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Borges
Win probability: 51% Borges · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (29%)
Luciano Darderi and Nuno Borges meet in the round of 16 at Montreal on Saturday. Nuno Borges has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Luciano Darderi is 6-4 across recent matches.
Nuno Borges has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Luciano Darderi. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Borges — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Borges gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Jodar
Win probability: 51% Jodar · Market: -118 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
Saturday's Montreal round of 16 pits Jiri Lehecka against Rafael Jodar on hard. Rafael Jodar is 7-3 across recent matches. Jiri Lehecka comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Jodar is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: TiranteUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Popyrin the favorite; our numbers say Tirante.
Win probability: 57% Tirante · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Saturday's Montreal round of 32 pits Alexei Popyrin against Thiago Agustin Tirante on hard. Thiago Agustin Tirante brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Alexei Popyrin has won 4 of the last 10.
Thiago Agustin Tirante is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tirante around 57%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tirante is exactly that — a lean.
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