9 matches are on Saturday's card at Toronto and Montreal, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jiri Lehecka against Rafael Jodar in the round of 16. Our calls: Jodar over Lehecka, Swiatek over Kostyuk, Paul over Tien, Pegula over Shnaider, Nakashima over Rinderknech, Sabalenka over Alexandrova, and 3 more.
The boldest call on the card: Tirante over Popyrin — the market disagrees with us there.
August 7, 2026 results: 13-5 → how our picks graded, match by match.
Pick: Jodar
Win probability: 51% Jodar · Market: -118 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
Saturday's Montreal round of 16 pits Jiri Lehecka against Rafael Jodar on hard. Rafael Jodar is 7-3 across recent matches. Jiri Lehecka comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Jodar is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 53% Swiatek · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Iga Swiatek goes up against Marta Kostyuk in the Toronto round of 16. Iga Swiatek comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Marta Kostyuk has won 8 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Iga Swiatek, 4-1 across their 5 meetings with Marta Kostyuk. On hard specifically it reads 3-0 Swiatek — worth more than the overall number this week.
Iga Swiatek simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Swiatek is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Paul
Win probability: 54% Paul · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Saturday's Montreal round of 32 pits Learner Tien against Tommy Paul on hard. Tommy Paul limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Learner Tien limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Paul fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Pegula
Win probability: 69% Pegula · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (48%)
Saturday's Toronto round of 16 pits Diana Shnaider against Jessica Pegula on hard. Jessica Pegula comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Diana Shnaider is 5-5 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Pegula.
Pick: Nakashima
Win probability: 57% Nakashima · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Saturday's Montreal round of 16 pits Arthur Rinderknech against Brandon Nakashima on hard. Brandon Nakashima has won 7 of the last 10. Arthur Rinderknech comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Brandon Nakashima is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Nakashima around 57%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Nakashima fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Sabalenka
Win probability: 84% Sabalenka · Market: -446 · We call it in 2 sets (70%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (62%)
Aryna Sabalenka and Ekaterina Alexandrova meet in the round of 16 at Toronto on Saturday. Aryna Sabalenka is 7-3 across recent matches. Ekaterina Alexandrova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Aryna Sabalenka is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Sabalenka around 84%. Alexandrova needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Borges
Win probability: 51% Borges · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
Luciano Darderi and Nuno Borges meet in the round of 16 at Montreal on Saturday. Nuno Borges has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Luciano Darderi is 6-4 across recent matches.
Nuno Borges has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Luciano Darderi. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Borges — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Borges gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: TiranteUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Popyrin the favorite; our numbers say Tirante.
Win probability: 57% Tirante · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Saturday's Montreal round of 32 pits Alexei Popyrin against Thiago Agustin Tirante on hard. Thiago Agustin Tirante brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Alexei Popyrin has won 4 of the last 10.
Thiago Agustin Tirante is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tirante around 57%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tirante is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Eala
Win probability: 72% Eala · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
Alexandra Eala and Caty Mcnally meet in the round of 32 at Toronto on Saturday. Alexandra Eala is rolling — 6 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Caty Mcnally is 6-4 across recent matches.
Alexandra Eala is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Eala around 72%. Eala should have enough here, though Mcnally has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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