4 matches are on Sunday's card at Toronto, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Amanda Anisimova against Elina Svitolina in the round of 16. Our calls: Anisimova over Svitolina, Rybakina over Samsonova, Osaka over Fernandez, Gauff over Korneeva.
The boldest call on the card: Anisimova over Svitolina — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: AnisimovaUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Svitolina; our numbers say Anisimova.
Win probability: 51% Anisimova · Market: +142 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Amanda Anisimova and Elina Svitolina meet in the round of 16 at Toronto on Sunday. Amanda Anisimova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Elina Svitolina brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Anisimova is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 81% Rybakina · Market: -264 · Sets: 2 (68%) · most likely score 2-0 (58%)
Sunday's Toronto round of 16 pits Elena Rybakina against Liudmila Samsonova on hard. Elena Rybakina comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Liudmila Samsonova brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.
Elena Rybakina is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Rybakina around 81%. Samsonova needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Gauff
Win probability: 77% Gauff · Market: -276 · Sets: 2 (71%) · most likely score 2-0 (57%)
Alina Korneeva and Coco Gauff meet in the round of 16 at Toronto on Sunday. Coco Gauff has won 7 of the last 10. Alina Korneeva comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Korneeva needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Osaka
Win probability: 65% Osaka · Market: -220 · Sets: 2 (68%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
Sunday's Toronto round of 16 pits Leylah Fernandez against Naomi Osaka on hard. Naomi Osaka is 8-2 across recent matches. Leylah Fernandez comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Osaka's 71.1% behind the first serve (against 64.8% for Fernandez) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Osaka should have enough here, though Fernandez has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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