4 matches are on Tuesday's card at Hamburg, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Max Houkes against Sumit Nagal in the round of 32. Our calls: Nagal over Houkes, Moller over Molleker, Nedic over Kirkin, Dodig over Yevseyev.
Pick: Dodig
Win probability: 75% Dodig · Market: -326 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Denis Yevseyev goes up against Matej Dodig in the Hamburg round of 32. Matej Dodig has won 6 of the last 10. Denis Yevseyev limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.5% versus 63.6% on first-serve points in Dodig's favor. If Dodig plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Moller
Win probability: 65% Moller · Market: -222 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Tuesday's Hamburg round of 32 pits Elmer Moller against Rudolf Molleker on clay. Elmer Moller is 6-4 across recent matches. Rudolf Molleker limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Elmer Moller simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Moller.
Pick: Nedic
Win probability: 67% Nedic · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Andrej Nedic and Ergi Kirkin meet in the round of 32 at Hamburg on Tuesday. Andrej Nedic has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Ergi Kirkin limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Andrej Nedic simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Nedic should have enough here, though Kirkin has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Nagal
Win probability: 53% Nagal · Market: -117 · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Max Houkes goes up against Sumit Nagal in the Hamburg round of 32. Sumit Nagal comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Max Houkes comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Nagal is exactly that — a lean.
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