2 matches are on Wednesday's card at Toronto, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elina Svitolina against Iga Swiatek in the semifinal. Our calls: Swiatek over Svitolina, Rybakina over Osaka.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 69% Rybakina · Market: -102 · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)
Wednesday's Toronto quarterfinal pits Elena Rybakina against Naomi Osaka on hard. Elena Rybakina has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall. Naomi Osaka is 8-2 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Rybakina — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 55% Swiatek · Market: -205 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Elina Svitolina and Iga Swiatek meet in the semifinal at Toronto on Wednesday. Iga Swiatek has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Elina Svitolina is rolling — 4 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Iga Swiatek simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Swiatek fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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