3 matches are on Thursday's card at Todi, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex Barrena against Emanuel Ambrogi Luciano in the round of 16. Our calls: Barrena over Luciano, Passaro over Batalla, Neumayer over Michalski.
Pick: Barrena
Win probability: 50% Barrena · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (26%)
Alex Barrena and Emanuel Ambrogi Luciano meet in the round of 16 at Todi on Thursday. Alex Barrena comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Emanuel Ambrogi Luciano has won 7 of the last 10.
Alex Barrena is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Barrena around 50%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Barrena fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Passaro
Win probability: 61% Passaro · Market: -165 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Francesco Passaro and Oriol Roca Batalla meet in the round of 16 at Todi on Thursday. Francesco Passaro is 3-7 across recent matches. Oriol Roca Batalla has won 3 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.7% versus 67.7% on first-serve points in Passaro's favor. The edge belongs to Passaro — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Neumayer
Win probability: 72% Neumayer · Market: -191 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Daniel Michalski goes up against Lukas Neumayer in the Todi round of 16. Lukas Neumayer is 5-5 across recent matches. Daniel Michalski has won 2 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Neumayer should have enough here, though Michalski has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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