✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Elena Rybakina at 61%, but Iga Swiatek won 6-2 6-3.
Pick: RybakinaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Swiatek the favorite; our numbers say Rybakina.
Win probability: 61% Rybakina · Market: +125 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
Thursday brings the Toronto final: Elena Rybakina against Iga Swiatek. Elena Rybakina is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Iga Swiatek has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
The serve is where this match separates: Rybakina has been winning 70% of first-serve points to Swiatek's 64%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Rybakina comes in off a compressed schedule; Swiatek comes in off a compressed schedule. Rybakina should have enough here, though Swiatek has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 65% on Elena Rybakina, who won 5-7 6-2 6-2.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 65% Rybakina · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)
Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina meet in the semifinal at Toronto on Thursday. Elena Rybakina has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall. Coco Gauff is rolling — 3 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.1% versus 66% on first-serve points in Rybakina's favor. Rybakina comes in off a compressed schedule. Rybakina should have enough here, though Gauff has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Ben Shelton was our 58% pick, and won 6-2 6-3.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 58% Shelton · Sets: 3 (46%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Ben Shelton goes up against Learner Tien in the Montreal semifinal. Ben Shelton is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Learner Tien brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
Shelton's 74.5% behind the first serve (against 68% for Tien) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Shelton comes in off a compressed schedule; Tien comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Shelton is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Raphael Collignon at 61% lost to Mariano Navone (6-3 7-6).
Pick: Collignon
Win probability: 61% Collignon · Market: -129 · Sets: 3 (46%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Mariano Navone goes up against Raphael Collignon in the Cincinnati first round. Raphael Collignon limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Mariano Navone has won 4 of the last 10.
Collignon's 72.8% behind the first serve (against 62.4% for Navone) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Collignon.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Cameron Norrie was our 58% pick, and won 3-6 6-1 6-4.
Pick: Norrie
Win probability: 58% Norrie · Market: -176 · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Cameron Norrie and Dino Prizmic meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Thursday. Cameron Norrie is 6-4 across recent matches. Dino Prizmic comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Cameron Norrie is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Norrie around 58%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Norrie fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 62% on Denis Shapovalov, who won 6-1 6-4.
Pick: Shapovalov
Win probability: 62% Shapovalov · Market: -135 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
Adrian Mannarino and Denis Shapovalov meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Thursday. Denis Shapovalov has won 5 of the last 10. Adrian Mannarino has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Shapovalov has been winning 74.7% of first-serve points to Mannarino's 70.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Shapovalov.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 60% on Taylor Townsend, who won 3-6 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Townsend
Win probability: 60% Townsend · Market: -129 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
Thursday's Cincinnati first round pits Camila Osorio against Taylor Townsend on hard. Taylor Townsend comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Camila Osorio comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Taylor Townsend is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Townsend around 60%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Townsend.
Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Terence Atmane. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Pick: Atmane
Win probability: 58% Atmane · Market: -183 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Marton Fucsovics and Terence Atmane meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Thursday. Terence Atmane is 4-6 across recent matches. Marton Fucsovics limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Terence Atmane simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Atmane is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Gael Monfils at 60%, but Rinky Hijikata won 2-6 7-6(5) 6-3.
Pick: Monfils
Win probability: 60% Monfils · Market: -125 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Gael Monfils goes up against Rinky Hijikata in the Cincinnati first round. Gael Monfils has won 4 of the last 10. Rinky Hijikata has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Gael Monfils simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Monfils.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Magdalena Frech was our 50% pick, and won 6-2 7-5.
Pick: Frech
Win probability: 50% Frech · Market: -149 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Antonia Ruzic and Magdalena Frech meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Thursday. Magdalena Frech comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Antonia Ruzic has won 3 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Frech gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Daria Kasatkina at 54%, but Zeynep Sonmez won 2-6 7-6 6-3.
Pick: Kasatkina
Win probability: 54% Kasatkina · Market: -130 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
Daria Kasatkina and Zeynep Sonmez meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Thursday. Daria Kasatkina comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Zeynep Sonmez comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Daria Kasatkina leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kasatkina fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Jack Draper at 78% lost to Martin Landaluce (6-3 7-5).
Pick: Draper
Win probability: 78% Draper · Market: -239 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (49%)
Jack Draper and Martin Landaluce meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Thursday. Jack Draper is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Martin Landaluce limps in on a 6-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Draper's 74.3% behind the first serve (against 70.7% for Landaluce) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Landaluce needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Miomir Kecmanovic was our 59% pick, and won 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Kecmanovic
Win probability: 59% Kecmanovic · Market: -252 · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Camilo Ugo Carabelli goes up against Miomir Kecmanovic in the Cincinnati first round. Miomir Kecmanovic has won 4 of the last 10. Camilo Ugo Carabelli has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.9% versus 66% on first-serve points in Kecmanovic's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kecmanovic is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 55% on Kimberly Birrell; Kamilla Rakhimova won 6-2 6-2.
Pick: Birrell
Win probability: 55% Birrell · Market: -111 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Kamilla Rakhimova goes up against Kimberly Birrell in the Cincinnati first round. Kimberly Birrell is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10). Kamilla Rakhimova comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Birrell gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Katie Boulter at 59% before the match, and Katie Boulter won 7-5 0-6 6-4.
Pick: Boulter
Win probability: 59% Boulter · Market: +107 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Thursday's Cincinnati first round pits Katie Boulter against Katie Volynets on hard. Katie Boulter limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Katie Volynets comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Boulter has been winning 67.6% of first-serve points to Volynets's 56.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Boulter gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Magda Linette at 58%, but Elena Gabriela Ruse won 6-0 6-3.
Pick: LinetteUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Ruse the favorite; our numbers say Linette.
Win probability: 58% Linette · Market: +134 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Thursday's Cincinnati first round pits Elena Gabriela Ruse against Magda Linette on hard. Magda Linette has won 5 of the last 10. Elena Gabriela Ruse has won 5 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Linette fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 65% on Thiago Agustin Tirante, who won 7-6 6-7 7-6.
Pick: Tirante
Win probability: 65% Tirante · Market: -184 · Sets: 3 (52%) · most likely score 2-1 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jan Choinski goes up against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Cincinnati first round. Thiago Agustin Tirante has won 6 of the last 10. Jan Choinski is rolling — 5 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tirante.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Ashlyn Krueger at 63% lost to Lois Boisson (6-3 6-2).
Pick: Krueger
Win probability: 63% Krueger · Market: -210 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Ashlyn Krueger goes up against Lois Boisson in the Cincinnati first round. Ashlyn Krueger is 8-2 across recent matches. Lois Boisson limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Ashlyn Krueger simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Krueger should have enough here, though Boisson has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Jan Lennard Struff at 52% before the match, and Jan Lennard Struff won 7-6 2-6 6-3.
Pick: Struff
Win probability: 52% Struff · Market: -108 · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
Jan Lennard Struff and Roman Andres Burruchaga meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Thursday. Jan Lennard Struff has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Roman Andres Burruchaga has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Struff's 76.5% behind the first serve (against 65.5% for Burruchaga) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Struff is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 56% on Cristina Bucsa, who won 6-2 1-6 7-5.
Pick: Bucsa
Win probability: 56% Bucsa · Market: -140 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Cristina Bucsa goes up against Panna Udvardy in the Cincinnati first round. Cristina Bucsa limps in on a 7-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10. Panna Udvardy limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Cristina Bucsa simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Bucsa fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 60% on Diane Parry, who won 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Parry
Win probability: 60% Parry · Market: +104 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Caroline Dolehide and Diane Parry meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Thursday. Diane Parry has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Caroline Dolehide has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Parry has been winning 65.6% of first-serve points to Dolehide's 61.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Parry is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Petra Marcinko at 50%, but Simona Waltert won 5-7 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Marcinko
Win probability: 50% Marcinko · Market: -123 · Sets: 3 (46%) · most likely score 2-0 (27%)
Thursday's Cincinnati first round pits Petra Marcinko against Simona Waltert on hard. Petra Marcinko has won 6 of the last 10. Simona Waltert limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Marcinko is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 61% on Anhelina Kalinina, who won 4-6 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Kalinina
Win probability: 61% Kalinina · Market: -110 · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
Thursday's Cincinnati first round pits Anhelina Kalinina against Darja Vidmanova on hard. Anhelina Kalinina limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Darja Vidmanova comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Anhelina Kalinina simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Kalinina should have enough here, though Vidmanova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Dayana Yastremska at 62%, but Tatjana Maria won 6-1 6-2.
Pick: Yastremska
Win probability: 62% Yastremska · Market: +112 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Dayana Yastremska and Tatjana Maria meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Thursday. Dayana Yastremska comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Tatjana Maria comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Dayana Yastremska is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Yastremska around 62%. Yastremska should have enough here, though Maria has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.