2 matches are on Thursday's card at Toronto, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elena Rybakina against Iga Swiatek in the final. Our calls: Rybakina over Swiatek, Rybakina over Gauff.
The boldest call on the card: Rybakina over Swiatek — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 65% Rybakina · Market: +122 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)
Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina meet in the semifinal at Toronto on Thursday. Elena Rybakina has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall. Coco Gauff is rolling — 3 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.1% versus 66% on first-serve points in Rybakina's favor. Rybakina comes in off a compressed schedule. Rybakina should have enough here, though Gauff has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: RybakinaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Swiatek the favorite; our numbers say Rybakina.
Win probability: 61% Rybakina · Market: +125 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
Thursday brings the Toronto final: Elena Rybakina against Iga Swiatek. Elena Rybakina is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Iga Swiatek has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
The serve is where this match separates: Rybakina has been winning 70% of first-serve points to Swiatek's 64%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Rybakina comes in off a compressed schedule; Swiatek comes in off a compressed schedule. Rybakina should have enough here, though Swiatek has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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