7 matches are on Monday's card at Cincinnati, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexander Blockx against Flavio Cobolli in the round of 32. Our calls: Blockx over Cobolli, Jodar over Tabilo, Zverev over Atmane, Tiafoe over Sonego, Minaur over Fery, Mensik over Hijikata, and 1 more.
Pick: Tiafoe
Win probability: 63% Tiafoe · Market: -162 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Frances Tiafoe and Lorenzo Sonego meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Monday. Frances Tiafoe has won 8 of the last 10. Lorenzo Sonego has won 5 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Tiafoe should have enough here, though Sonego has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 75% Zverev · Market: -413 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (50%)
Monday's Cincinnati round of 32 pits Alexander Zverev against Terence Atmane on hard. Alexander Zverev is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (7 of the last 10). Terence Atmane is 5-5 across recent matches.
Alexander Zverev simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Zverev win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Mensik
Win probability: 71% Mensik · Market: -312 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Jakub Mensik goes up against Rinky Hijikata in the Cincinnati round of 32. Jakub Mensik is 6-4 across recent matches. Rinky Hijikata is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Mensik has been winning 76.7% of first-serve points to Hijikata's 68.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Mensik should have enough here, though Hijikata has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 68% Minaur · Market: -344 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Alex De Minaur goes up against Arthur Fery in the Cincinnati round of 32. Alex De Minaur has won 7 of the last 10. Arthur Fery has won 7 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Minaur.
Pick: Jodar
Win probability: 64% Jodar · Market: -214 · Sets: 3 (42%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Alejandro Tabilo goes up against Rafael Jodar in the Cincinnati round of 32. Rafael Jodar is 8-2 across recent matches. Alejandro Tabilo has won 5 of the last 10.
Rafael Jodar simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Jodar — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Tirante
Win probability: 63% Tirante · Market: -121 · Sets: 3 (50%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Martin Landaluce and Thiago Agustin Tirante meet in the round of 32 at Cincinnati on Monday. Thiago Agustin Tirante comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Martin Landaluce has won 3 of the last 10.
Thiago Agustin Tirante is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tirante around 63%. Tirante should have enough here, though Landaluce has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Blockx
Win probability: 55% Blockx · Market: -110 · Sets: 3 (50%) · most likely score 2-0 (27%)
Monday's Cincinnati round of 32 pits Alexander Blockx against Flavio Cobolli on hard. Alexander Blockx comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Flavio Cobolli comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.2% versus 70.6% on first-serve points in Blockx's favor. Little separates them; Blockx gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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