8 matches are on Monday's card at Cincinnati, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Anna Kalinskaya against Sorana Cirstea in the round of 32. Our calls: Cirstea over Kalinskaya, Swiatek over Sakkari, Svitolina over Valentova, Rybakina over Frech, Noskova over Tauson, Pegula over Navarro, and 2 more.
Pick: Svitolina
Win probability: 69% Svitolina · Market: -243 · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)
Elina Svitolina and Tereza Valentova meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Monday. Elina Svitolina has won 6 of the last 10. Tereza Valentova is 6-4 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Svitolina should have enough here, though Valentova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Pegula
Win probability: 80% Pegula · Market: -344 · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (55%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Emma Navarro goes up against Jessica Pegula in the Cincinnati round of 32. Jessica Pegula is 7-3 across recent matches. Emma Navarro is 6-4 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Navarro needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Noskova
Win probability: 72% Noskova · Market: -228 · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (51%)
Monday's Cincinnati round of 32 pits Clara Tauson against Linda Noskova on hard. Linda Noskova is 8-2 across recent matches. Clara Tauson limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Linda Noskova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Noskova around 72%. Anything other than a Noskova win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Shnaider
Win probability: 68% Shnaider · Market: -279 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Diana Shnaider goes up against Maja Chwalinska in the Cincinnati round of 32. Diana Shnaider comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Maja Chwalinska is 7-3 across recent matches.
Maja Chwalinska has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Diana Shnaider.
Hold strength tells the story — 62.7% versus 58.4% on first-serve points in Shnaider's favor. The edge belongs to Shnaider — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Cirstea
Win probability: 54% Cirstea · Market: -101 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Anna Kalinskaya goes up against Sorana Cirstea in the Cincinnati round of 32. Sorana Cirstea comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Anna Kalinskaya comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cirstea is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Boisson
Win probability: 53% Boisson · Market: -110 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Diane Parry goes up against Lois Boisson in the Cincinnati round of 32. Lois Boisson is 2-8 across recent matches. Diane Parry is 5-5 across recent matches.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Boisson is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 85% Rybakina · Market: -567 · Sets: 2 (70%) · most likely score 2-0 (62%)
Elena Rybakina and Magdalena Frech meet in the round of 32 at Cincinnati on Monday. Elena Rybakina has won 7 of the last 10. Magdalena Frech is 4-6 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Rybakina has been winning 70% of first-serve points to Frech's 62.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Rybakina comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Rybakina win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 76% Swiatek · Market: -531 · Sets: 2 (69%) · most likely score 2-0 (57%)
Monday's Cincinnati round of 32 pits Iga Swiatek against Maria Sakkari on hard. Iga Swiatek brings a 6-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Maria Sakkari has won 5 of the last 10.
Iga Swiatek is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Swiatek around 76%. If Swiatek plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
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