6 matches are on Tuesday's card at Cincinnati, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexandra Eala against Amanda Anisimova in the round of 32. Our calls: Anisimova over Eala, Alexandrova over Bejlek, Keys over Siniakova, Gauff over Li, Andreeva over Tjen, Kostyuk over Stephens.
Pick: Anisimova
Win probability: 52% Anisimova · Market: -114 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Tuesday's Cincinnati round of 32 pits Alexandra Eala against Amanda Anisimova on hard. Amanda Anisimova is 6-4 across recent matches. Alexandra Eala has won 8 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Anisimova is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Kostyuk
Win probability: 82% Kostyuk · Market: -655 · Sets: 2 (71%) · most likely score 2-0 (60%)
Marta Kostyuk and Sloane Stephens meet in the round of 32 at Cincinnati on Tuesday. Marta Kostyuk is 8-2 across recent matches. Sloane Stephens has won 4 of the last 10.
Marta Kostyuk is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Kostyuk around 82%. Anything other than a Kostyuk win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Andreeva
Win probability: 72% Andreeva · Market: -531 · Sets: 2 (70%) · most likely score 2-0 (53%)
Janice Tjen and Mirra Andreeva meet in the round of 32 at Cincinnati on Tuesday. Mirra Andreeva has won 7 of the last 10. Janice Tjen comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Tjen needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Gauff
Win probability: 72% Gauff · Market: -580 · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (51%)
Ann Li and Coco Gauff meet in the round of 32 at Cincinnati on Tuesday. Coco Gauff has won 8 of the last 10. Ann Li comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Coco Gauff simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Gauff — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Keys
Win probability: 65% Keys · Market: -295 · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Katerina Siniakova goes up against Madison Keys in the Cincinnati round of 32. Madison Keys comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Katerina Siniakova is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Keys has been winning 65.5% of first-serve points to Siniakova's 61.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Keys — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Alexandrova
Win probability: 53% Alexandrova · Market: +111 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Ekaterina Alexandrova and Sara Bejlek meet in the round of 32 at Cincinnati on Tuesday. Ekaterina Alexandrova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Sara Bejlek comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Alexandrova has been winning 66.9% of first-serve points to Bejlek's 57.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Alexandrova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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