6 matches are on Wednesday's card at Cincinnati, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex De Minaur against Arthur Fils in the round of 16. Our calls: Fils over Minaur, Tien over Tiafoe, Zverev over Paul, Jodar over Cobolli, Mensik over Tirante, Nakashima over Borges.
Pick: Tien
Win probability: 55% Tien · Market: -116 · Sets: 3 (46%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Frances Tiafoe goes up against Learner Tien in the Cincinnati round of 32. Learner Tien is 6-4 across recent matches. Frances Tiafoe comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tien is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 65% Zverev · Market: -227 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)
Wednesday's Cincinnati round of 16 pits Alexander Zverev against Tommy Paul on hard. Alexander Zverev is 7-3 across recent matches. Tommy Paul is 6-4 across recent matches.
Zverev's 73.3% behind the first serve (against 69.4% for Paul) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Zverev should have enough here, though Paul has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Jodar
Win probability: 63% Jodar · Market: -265 · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Wednesday's Cincinnati round of 16 pits Flavio Cobolli against Rafael Jodar on hard. Rafael Jodar has won 8 of the last 10. Flavio Cobolli has won 6 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Jodar — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Mensik
Win probability: 57% Mensik · Market: -185 · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Jakub Mensik and Thiago Agustin Tirante meet in the round of 16 at Cincinnati on Wednesday. Jakub Mensik is 6-4 across recent matches. Thiago Agustin Tirante has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
The serve is where this match separates: Mensik has been winning 76.7% of first-serve points to Tirante's 70.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Mensik is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 54% Fils · Market: -155 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Alex De Minaur and Arthur Fils meet in the round of 16 at Cincinnati on Wednesday. Arthur Fils is 6-4 across recent matches. Alex De Minaur is 7-3 across recent matches.
Fils's 74.2% behind the first serve (against 69% for Minaur) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Fils gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Nakashima
Win probability: 61% Nakashima · Market: -146 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
Brandon Nakashima and Nuno Borges meet in the round of 16 at Cincinnati on Wednesday. Brandon Nakashima has won 8 of the last 10. Nuno Borges is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
Brandon Nakashima simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Nakashima comes in off a compressed schedule. Nakashima should have enough here, though Borges has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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