4 matches are on Friday's card at Cincinnati, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Frances Tiafoe against Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Musetti over Tiafoe, Fritz over Nakashima, Fils over Tirante, Keys over Bejlek.
August 20, 2026 results: 3-3 → how our picks graded, match by match.
Pick: Musetti
Win probability: 52% Musetti · Market: -109 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Friday's Cincinnati quarterfinal pits Frances Tiafoe against Lorenzo Musetti on hard. Lorenzo Musetti comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Frances Tiafoe has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Musetti fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 56% Fritz · Market: -165 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Friday's Cincinnati quarterfinal pits Brandon Nakashima against Taylor Fritz on hard. Taylor Fritz is 8-2 across recent matches. Brandon Nakashima comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fritz fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 64% Fils · Market: -293 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Arthur Fils goes up against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Cincinnati quarterfinal. Arthur Fils brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Thiago Agustin Tirante is rolling — 4 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
The serve is where this match separates: Fils has been winning 74.2% of first-serve points to Tirante's 70.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fils.
Pick: Keys
Win probability: 60% Keys · Market: -184 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Madison Keys goes up against Sara Bejlek in the Cincinnati quarterfinal. Madison Keys is 7-3 across recent matches. Sara Bejlek has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
Keys's 65.5% behind the first serve (against 57.7% for Bejlek) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Keys fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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