2 matches are on Saturday's card at Cincinnati, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Iga Swiatek against Jessica Pegula in the semifinal. Our calls: Swiatek over Pegula, Gauff over Kostyuk.
Pick: Gauff
Win probability: 50% Gauff · Market: -125 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Coco Gauff and Marta Kostyuk meet in the quarterfinal at Cincinnati on Saturday. Coco Gauff comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Marta Kostyuk has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
Coco Gauff simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Gauff gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 51% Swiatek · Market: -209 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Saturday's Cincinnati semifinal pits Iga Swiatek against Jessica Pegula on hard. Iga Swiatek brings a 9-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Jessica Pegula has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Swiatek fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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