4 matches are on Saturday's card at Cincinnati, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Iga Swiatek against Jessica Pegula in the semifinal. Our calls: Swiatek over Pegula, Gauff over Kostyuk, Nakashima over Tiafoe, Fils over Cobolli.
August 21, 2026 results: 1-3 → how our picks graded, match by match.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 51% Swiatek · Market: -209 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Saturday's Cincinnati semifinal pits Iga Swiatek against Jessica Pegula on hard. Iga Swiatek brings a 9-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Jessica Pegula has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Swiatek fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Gauff
Win probability: 50% Gauff · Market: -125 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Coco Gauff and Marta Kostyuk meet in the quarterfinal at Cincinnati on Saturday. Coco Gauff comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Marta Kostyuk has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
Coco Gauff simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Gauff gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Nakashima
Win probability: 55% Nakashima · Market: -109 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Brandon Nakashima and Frances Tiafoe meet in the semifinal at Cincinnati on Saturday. Brandon Nakashima is rolling — 4 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Frances Tiafoe has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Nakashima gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 63% Fils · Market: -234 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)
Arthur Fils and Flavio Cobolli meet in the semifinal at Cincinnati on Saturday. Arthur Fils brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Flavio Cobolli has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
Fils's 74.2% behind the first serve (against 71% for Cobolli) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Fils — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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