2 matches are on Sunday's card at Cincinnati, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Coco Gauff against Jessica Pegula in the final. Our calls: Pegula over Gauff, Gauff over Bejlek.
The boldest call on the card: Pegula over Gauff — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Gauff
Win probability: 62% Gauff · Market: -336 · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Coco Gauff goes up against Sara Bejlek in the Cincinnati semifinal. Coco Gauff has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Sara Bejlek has won 5 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
The serve is where this match separates: Gauff has been winning 65.8% of first-serve points to Bejlek's 58%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Gauff should have enough here, though Bejlek has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: PegulaUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Gauff; our numbers say Pegula.
Win probability: 55% Pegula · Market: +154 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
It all comes down to Sunday at Cincinnati, where Coco Gauff faces Jessica Pegula for the trophy. Jessica Pegula brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Coco Gauff has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
Jessica Pegula leads the head-to-head 5-3, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 4-2 Pegula — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Gauff comes in off a compressed schedule; Pegula comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Pegula gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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