4 matches are on Monday's card at Como, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Matej Dodig against Mili Poljicak in the round of 32. Our calls: Dodig over Poljicak, Kumstat over Varillas, Bueno over Silva, Bondioli over Arnaboldi.
Pick: Kumstat
Win probability: 68% Kumstat · Market: -276 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Jan Kumstat goes up against Juan Pablo Varillas in the Como round of 32. Jan Kumstat has won 10 in a row and 10 of the last 10 overall. Juan Pablo Varillas is 7-3 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.8% versus 68.6% on first-serve points in Kumstat's favor. Kumstat should have enough here, though Varillas has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Bondioli
Win probability: 62% Bondioli · Market: -190 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Monday's Como round of 32 pits Federico Arnaboldi against Federico Bondioli on clay. Federico Bondioli is 6-4 across recent matches. Federico Arnaboldi has dropped 6 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
Federico Bondioli simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Bondioli should have enough here, though Arnaboldi has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Bueno
Win probability: 52% Bueno · Market: -166 · We call it in 3 sets (54%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Monday's Como round of 32 pits Gonzalo Bueno against Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva on clay. Gonzalo Bueno is 6-4 across recent matches. Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Bueno fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Dodig
Win probability: 52% Dodig · Market: -141 · We call it in 3 sets (55%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Matej Dodig goes up against Mili Poljicak in the Como round of 32. Matej Dodig comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Mili Poljicak is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Matej Dodig is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Dodig around 52%. Little separates them; Dodig gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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