4 matches are on Monday's card at Como, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jan Kumstat against Juan Pablo Varillas in the round of 32. Our calls: Kumstat over Varillas, Dodig over Poljicak, Bueno over Silva.
Pick: Kumstat
Win probability: 68% Kumstat · Market: -276 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Jan Kumstat goes up against Juan Pablo Varillas in the Como round of 32. Jan Kumstat has won 10 in a row and 10 of the last 10 overall. Juan Pablo Varillas is 7-3 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.8% versus 68.6% on first-serve points in Kumstat's favor. Kumstat should have enough here, though Varillas has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's Como round of 32 pits Federico Arnaboldi against Federico Bondioli on clay. Federico Bondioli is 6-4 across recent matches. Federico Arnaboldi has dropped 6 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
Pick: Bueno
Win probability: 52% Bueno · Market: -166 · Sets: 3 (54%) · most likely score 2-1 (27%)
Monday's Como round of 32 pits Gonzalo Bueno against Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva on clay. Gonzalo Bueno is 6-4 across recent matches. Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Bueno fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Dodig
Win probability: 52% Dodig · Market: -141 · Sets: 3 (55%) · most likely score 2-1 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Matej Dodig goes up against Mili Poljicak in the Como round of 32. Matej Dodig comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Mili Poljicak is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Dodig gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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