3 matches are on Friday's card at Porto 2, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Gustavo Heide against Thiago Monteiro in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Heide over Monteiro, Mena over Batalla, Dellien over Damas.
The boldest call on the card: Mena over Batalla — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Heide
Win probability: 62% Heide · Market: -133 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
Friday's Porto 2 quarterfinal pits Gustavo Heide against Thiago Monteiro on clay. Gustavo Heide has won 6 of the last 10. Thiago Monteiro has won 6 of the last 10.
Gustavo Heide simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Heide — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: MenaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Batalla the favorite; our numbers say Mena.
Win probability: 56% Mena · Market: +135 · Sets: 3 (50%) · most likely score 2-1 (28%)
Friday's Porto 2 quarterfinal pits Facundo Mena against Oriol Roca Batalla on clay. Facundo Mena has won 6 of the last 10. Oriol Roca Batalla has won 3 of the last 10.
Mena's 72% behind the first serve (against 68% for Batalla) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Mena is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Dellien
Win probability: 77% Dellien · Market: -344 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (48%)
Hugo Dellien and Miguel Damas meet in the quarterfinal at Porto 2 on Friday. Hugo Dellien has won 3 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Miguel Damas is 3-7 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Dellien comes in off a compressed schedule; Damas comes in off a compressed schedule. If Dellien plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
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