US Open predictions, September 4, 2026: Michelsen vs. Aguilar, Tiafoe vs. Vacherot

Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida Aguilar meet in the round of 32 at US Open on Friday. Alex Michelsen comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Daniel Merida Aguilar is 8-2 across recent matches.

Michelsen's 69.9% behind the first serve (against 64.6% for Aguilar) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Michelsen gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Friday's US Open round of 32 pits Frances Tiafoe against Valentin Vacherot on hard. Frances Tiafoe has won 7 of the last 10. Valentin Vacherot has won 4 of the last 10.

Frances Tiafoe is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tiafoe around 54%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tiafoe fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Alexander Bublik and Tommy Paul meet in the round of 32 at US Open on Friday. Tommy Paul has won 6 of the last 10. Alexander Bublik has won 7 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Paul is exactly that — a lean.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Diana Shnaider goes up against Taylor Townsend in the US Open round of 32. Diana Shnaider is 7-3 across recent matches. Taylor Townsend is 6-4 across recent matches.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Shnaider gets the nod on the finest of margins.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Jasmine Paolini goes up against Sorana Cirstea in the US Open round of 32. Sorana Cirstea has won 6 of the last 10. Jasmine Paolini is 7-3 across recent matches.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cirstea is exactly that — a lean.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Jiri Lehecka goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the US Open round of 32. Jiri Lehecka has won 6 of the last 10. Stefanos Tsitsipas is 6-4 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Lehecka.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Arthur Rinderknech goes up against Daniil Medvedev in the US Open round of 32. Daniil Medvedev has won 5 of the last 10. Arthur Rinderknech comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Medvedev.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Mariano Navone goes up against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the US Open round of 32. Mariano Navone has won 6 of the last 10. Tomas Martin Etcheverry is 4-6 across recent matches.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Navone gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Friday's US Open round of 32 pits Carlos Alcaraz against Yibing Wu on hard. Carlos Alcaraz has won 7 of the last 10. Yibing Wu is 3-7 across recent matches.

Carlos Alcaraz simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. If Alcaraz plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Jessica Pegula goes up against Leylah Fernandez in the US Open round of 32. Jessica Pegula is 8-2 across recent matches. Leylah Fernandez has won 5 of the last 10.

Jessica Pegula simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Pegula win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Friday's US Open round of 32 pits Ekaterina Alexandrova against Marta Kostyuk on hard. Marta Kostyuk is 7-3 across recent matches. Ekaterina Alexandrova has won 6 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Kostyuk should have enough here, though Alexandrova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Ann Li and Linda Noskova meet in the round of 32 at US Open on Friday. Linda Noskova is 8-2 across recent matches. Ann Li is 5-5 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 69.3% versus 65.3% on first-serve points in Noskova's favor. The edge belongs to Noskova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Emma Navarro and Karolina Muchova meet in the round of 32 at US Open on Friday. Karolina Muchova has won 9 of the last 10. Emma Navarro has won 6 of the last 10.

Karolina Muchova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Muchova around 79%. Navarro needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Friday's US Open round of 64 pits Alexander Zverev against Quentin Halys on hard. Alexander Zverev comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Quentin Halys comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.

Alexander Zverev simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Zverev win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Aryna Sabalenka goes up against Kamilla Rakhimova in the US Open round of 32. Aryna Sabalenka comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Kamilla Rakhimova is 6-4 across recent matches.

The serve is where this match separates: Sabalenka has been winning 67% of first-serve points to Rakhimova's 62.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Sabalenka win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Friday's US Open round of 64 pits Elena Rybakina against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro on hard. Elena Rybakina has won 5 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro is 5-5 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 70% versus 59.5% on first-serve points in Rybakina's favor. Anything other than a Rybakina win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.