7 matches are on Saturday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexander Blockx against Flavio Cobolli in the round of 32. Our calls: Cobolli over Blockx, Shelton over Shapovalov, Fritz over Cerundolo, Zandschulp over Bergs, Gea over Zheng, Khachanov over Bonzi, and 1 more.
The boldest call on the card: Gea over Zheng — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 69% Shelton · Market: -321 · Sets: 4+ (58%) · most likely score 3-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Ben Shelton goes up against Denis Shapovalov in the US Open round of 32. Ben Shelton comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Denis Shapovalov comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Shelton.
Pick: Darderi
Win probability: 72% Darderi · Market: -330 · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 3-0 (40%)
Saturday's US Open round of 32 pits Dane Sweeny against Luciano Darderi on hard. Luciano Darderi has won 6 of the last 10. Dane Sweeny has won 5 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.9% versus 66.2% on first-serve points in Darderi's favor. Anything other than a Darderi win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 67% Fritz · Market: -500 · Sets: 4+ (59%) · most likely score 3-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Francisco Cerundolo goes up against Taylor Fritz in the US Open round of 32. Taylor Fritz has won 8 of the last 10. Francisco Cerundolo has won 6 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Fritz has been winning 74.6% of first-serve points to Cerundolo's 66.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fritz.
Pick: GeaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Zheng the favorite; our numbers say Gea.
Win probability: 60% Gea · Market: +140 · Sets: 4+ (76%) · most likely score 3-1 (25%)
Saturday's US Open round of 32 pits Arthur Gea against Michael Zheng on hard. Arthur Gea has won 6 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Michael Zheng comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Arthur Gea simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Gea.
Pick: Zandschulp
Win probability: 51% Zandschulp · Market: -194 · Sets: 4+ (65%) · most likely score 3-1 (19%)
Saturday's US Open round of 32 pits Botic Van De Zandschulp against Zizou Bergs on hard. Botic Van De Zandschulp has won 7 of the last 10. Zizou Bergs comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Botic Van De Zandschulp is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Zandschulp around 51%. Little separates them; Zandschulp gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Cobolli
Win probability: 51% Cobolli · Market: -102 · Sets: 4+ (69%) · most likely score 3-1 (21%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Alexander Blockx goes up against Flavio Cobolli in the US Open round of 32. Flavio Cobolli has won 6 of the last 10. Alexander Blockx has won 5 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cobolli is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: KhachanovUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Bonzi; our numbers say Khachanov.
Win probability: 51% Khachanov · Market: -188 · Sets: 4+ (69%) · most likely score 3-1 (19%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Benjamin Bonzi goes up against Karen Khachanov in the US Open round of 32. Karen Khachanov has won 4 of the last 10. Benjamin Bonzi comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Khachanov gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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