4 matches are on Sunday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Linda Noskova against Marta Kostyuk in the round of 16. Our calls: Kostyuk over Noskova, Sabalenka over Townsend, Pegula over Cirstea, Rybakina over Starodubtseva.
Pick: Sabalenka
Win probability: 74% Sabalenka · Market: -419 · Sets: 2 (70%) · most likely score 2-0 (54%)
Aryna Sabalenka and Taylor Townsend meet in the round of 16 at US Open on Sunday. Aryna Sabalenka is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Taylor Townsend is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Aryna Sabalenka is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Sabalenka around 74%. If Sabalenka plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Pegula
Win probability: 66% Pegula · Market: -253 · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (46%)
Jessica Pegula and Sorana Cirstea meet in the round of 16 at US Open on Sunday. Jessica Pegula is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Sorana Cirstea is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Pegula — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Kostyuk
Win probability: 51% Kostyuk · Market: -131 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Linda Noskova and Marta Kostyuk meet in the round of 16 at US Open on Sunday. Marta Kostyuk has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Linda Noskova brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
Marta Kostyuk has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Linda Noskova.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kostyuk fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 89% Rybakina · Market: -741 · Sets: 2 (73%) · most likely score 2-0 (67%)
Elena Rybakina and Yuliia Starodubtseva meet in the round of 32 at US Open on Sunday. Elena Rybakina brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Yuliia Starodubtseva is 4-6 across recent matches.
Yuliia Starodubtseva has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Elena Rybakina.
Hold strength tells the story — 70% versus 57.8% on first-serve points in Rybakina's favor. Starodubtseva needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
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